GBP\/JPY, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle yenin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 sonucu zay\u0131flad\u0131; yen, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k alt\u0131 ay\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k sterlin, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) daha az net bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme sahip olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda; politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikay\u0131 gerektirip gerektirmedi\u011fi konusunda b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler daha y\u00fcksek faiz tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi: revize rakamlar, ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %1,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini (\u00f6nceki %1,1) g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasalar BoJ\u2019un eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 0,25 puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor ve z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 seviyesinde. Yen, ayr\u0131ca Japonya ve ABD\u2019nin bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda m\u00fcdahalede bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan d\u00fczensiz hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 resm\u00ee ad\u0131m at\u0131labilece\u011fi beklentisinden de destek buldu. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta BoE, politika faizini %3,75\u2019te tutarken enflasyon %2 hedefe kar\u015f\u0131 %2,9 seviyesinde; bu da GBP\/JPY\u2019yi 11 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH verisi, 17 Eyl\u00fcl BoE karar\u0131 ve ertesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 dahil olmak \u00fczere veri ve karar ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na duyarl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, GBP\/JPY paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131yla daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) pozisyonu almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu ay faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksekken, yenin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu kritik destek seviyelerini zorlayacak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, yenin h\u0131zl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131nda sert \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; t\u0131pk\u0131 2024 sonundaki piyasa sars\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda GBP\/JPY\u2019nin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dramatik %10\u2019luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte oldu\u011fu gibi.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n revize edilmi\u015f 2\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %1,4 gelmesi, ekonomik toparlanman\u0131n sa\u011flam bir zeminde oldu\u011funu teyit ederek BoJ\u2019a para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in geni\u015f alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda para piyasalar\u0131, yakla\u015fan eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %80 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu faiz fark\u0131ndaki daralman\u0131n, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerinin haf\u0131zalarda taze olmas\u0131yla da desteklenerek yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, enflasyonun %2,9 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131 ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir sonraki ad\u0131m konusunda b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi nedeniyle \u00e7ok daha belirsiz. Bu durum, 11 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH verisini sterlinde oynakl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir tetikleyici h\u00e2line getiriyor. 17 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki BoE faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde her iki y\u00f6nde sert hareketleri yakalamak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejilerini kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, GBP\/JPY g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015f (short-on-rally) stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Yen alt\u0131 ay\u0131n zirvelerini a\u015farsa, ana destek seviyelerine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirlerini s\u0131k\u0131 tutmas\u0131 gerekiyor; zira arka arkaya gelen bu merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131, teminat gereksinimlerinde ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetiklemeye aday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin\/yen neden \u00e7ak\u0131l\u0131yor? BoJ\u2019un eyl\u00fclde %80 olas\u0131l\u0131kla 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Japonya verileri yen\u2019i ta\u015f\u0131yor; belirsiz BoE bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Oynakl\u0131\u011fa: put hedge, straddle\/strangle, rallide sat\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49957,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t