Hindistan Rupisi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirdi; USD\/INR, bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ya\u015fanan sert d\u00fczeltmenin ard\u0131ndan 95,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131: 21 Eyl\u00fcl vadeli MCX Ham Petrol kontrat\u0131 %2,5\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselerek 8.950 rupi seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 22 May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Petrol, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n arz kesintisi riskini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla y\u00fckseldi. Al Jazeera\u2019ya g\u00f6re \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 (IRGC), Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde \u0130ran tankerlerine y\u00f6nelik ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki Al Azraq hava \u00fcss\u00fcne balistik f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Navlun\/ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k verileri de bask\u0131ya i\u015faret etti. Reuters\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kpler verilerine g\u00f6re 7 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan yedi emtia gemisi ge\u00e7ti; bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn bu say\u0131 sekizdi ve sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi 130-140\u2019l\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Rupideki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, RBI\u2019nin spot ve NDF piyasalar\u0131nda devreye girdi\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemleri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; Reuters, para otoritesinin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasada bulundu\u011funu ancak buna ra\u011fmen para biriminin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131. Dikkatler \u015fimdi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak A\u011fustos ABD T\u00dcFE verisine ve faiz beklentileri \u00fczerindeki etkilerine \u00e7evrildi; TD Securities \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019yi ayl\u0131k %0,18 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, piyasa bazl\u0131 beklenti %0,13 seviyesinde. Teknik olarak USD\/INR 95,07\u2019de i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 95,1338 seviyesinde. Yukar\u0131da 95,50 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da destek Haziran dip seviyesi 94,15\u2019te.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik gerilimlerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n MCX ham petrol kontratlar\u0131nda uzun (long) pozisyonlara odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu hayati koridordan ge\u00e7en gemi trafi\u011finin tarihsel 140 gemilik ortalamadan yaln\u0131zca yediye d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle, arz endi\u015feleri enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itmeye devam edecektir. Bu bo\u011faz k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131nda olas\u0131 yeni bir t\u0131rmanma \u00e7ok sert yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat hareketlerini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda ise, 95,07 civar\u0131nda ve 95,13\u2019teki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda seyreden USD\/INR paritesini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 95,13\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde, 95,50 hedefiyle k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nabilir. Ancak ani geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in 94,15 destek seviyesine yak\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Hindistan Rezerv Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) rupiyi savunmak i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahaleye gitmesinin yaratabilece\u011fi ani oynakl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Tarihsel olarak RBI, yakla\u015f\u0131k 690 milyar dolarla rekor seviyelere ula\u015fan y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz rezervlerini kullanarak spot piyasada agresif bi\u00e7imde dolar satarak m\u00fcdahalede bulunmu\u015ftur. S\u00fcregelen bu merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi riski nedeniyle, USD\/INR i\u015flemlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli (capped-risk) opsiyon spread\u2019leri kullanmak, teminats\u0131z vadeli (naked futures) uzun pozisyona g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha g\u00fcvenlidir.<\/p>\n\n
Bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD enflasyon raporu bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck piyasa belirleyicisi olacak; ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in straddle gibi piyasa-n\u00f6tr stratejiler kullan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7ekirdek ayl\u0131k PCE enflasyonu ger\u00e7ekten de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi %0,13 ile \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 gelirse, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara verme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde artar; bu da dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini ge\u00e7ici olarak durdurabilir. T\u00fcrev portf\u00f6yleri, hafta sonu \u00f6ncesinde ima edilen volatilitedeki h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlerden faydalanacak \u015fekilde konumland\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi, artan petrol ve ABD-\u0130ran gerilimiyle USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda eriyor: USD\/INR 95 \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz trafi\u011fi \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc, arz endi\u015fesi b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. G\u00f6zler Cuma ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de. RBI m\u00fcdahalesi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t