{"id":53800,"date":"2026-09-09T07:27:31","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T07:27:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/yen-onculugunde-dolarin-gerilemesi-ve-orta-dogu-gerilimiyle-altin-4-400-dolarin-uzerine-toparlandi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-09T07:27:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T07:27:31","slug":"yen-onculugunde-dolarin-gerilemesi-ve-orta-dogu-gerilimiyle-altin-4-400-dolarin-uzerine-toparlandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/yen-onculugunde-dolarin-gerilemesi-ve-orta-dogu-gerilimiyle-altin-4-400-dolarin-uzerine-toparlandi\/","title":{"rendered":"Yen \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde dolar\u0131n gerilemesi ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle alt\u0131n 4.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine toparland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden toparlanarak 4.400 dolar seviyesini yeniden ald\u0131 ve Japon yenindeki Bank of Japan (BoJ) destekli ralli sonras\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n iki haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n kalmas\u0131yla \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Faiz beklentileri ise dengeleyici unsur olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kesin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, piyasalar\u0131n 17\u201318 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tam fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) da bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi belirtiliyor. ABD\u2019de ise daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik bahisleri yeniden canland\u0131rd\u0131; BNY, ge\u00e7en Per\u015fembe k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine geriledikten sonra olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n yeniden %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. <\/p>\n\n

Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de tabloya bir katman daha ekledi: ABD, Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde ve Harg Adas\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a ait petrol tankerlerini vurdu; \u0130ran ise \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki El Azrak \u00fcss\u00fcnde bulunan ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerine 30\u2019dan fazla f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatarak kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi. Ayr\u0131ca IRGC, Kuveyt ve Bahreyn limanlar\u0131ndaki gemilerin hedef al\u0131nabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Risk primi petrol\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131rken, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD \u00dcFE (PPI) ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE (CPI) \u00f6ncesinde enflasyon endi\u015felerini besledi. Teknik tarafta destek 4.345\u20134.340 dolar band\u0131nda bulunuyor; bu b\u00f6lge, d\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte 200 periyotluk SMA ile Temmuz\u2013A\u011fustos y\u00fckseli\u015finin %50,0 geri \u00e7ekilmesine denk geliyor. RSI 42 civar\u0131nda seyrederken MACD negatif b\u00f6lgede kal\u0131yor. Diren\u00e7 4.427 dolarda (%38,2), ard\u0131ndan 4.529 dolar (%23,6) seviyesinde. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seviyeler aras\u0131nda 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.352,88 dolar, 4.344 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.262 dolar ve 4.144 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Alt\u0131n \u0130\u00e7in T\u00fcrev \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

XAU\/USD 4.400 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n piyasas\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 risk kontrol\u00fcyle yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son toparlanma bir miktar istikrar g\u00f6sterse de, genel momentum zay\u0131f kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da do\u011frudan uzun (long) pozisyonlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bunun yerine, RSI\u2019\u0131n 42 ile n\u00f6tr b\u00f6lgede olmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak amac\u0131yla iron condor gibi k\u0131sa vadeli yatay bant (range-bound) stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 25 baz puanl\u0131k ECB art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %60 olmas\u0131, y\u00fckselen reel getirilerin alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde y\u00fckselen 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k reel faizlerle yakla\u015f\u0131k -0,80 d\u00fczeyinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir negatif korelasyon g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verilerinin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelmesi halinde, XAU\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Jeopolitik Risk ve Kritik Fiyat Seviyeleri<\/h3>\n\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma petrol\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131rken, bu durum tarihsel olarak emtia fiyatlar\u0131na %3 ile %5 aras\u0131nda jeopolitik risk primi ekleyebiliyor. Ancak daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin enflasyonu ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015funu da beslemesi nedeniyle, bu g\u00fcvenli liman kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin muhtemelen k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu gerilimi hedge etmek i\u00e7in, Per\u015fembe ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon verilerinin yaratabilece\u011fi sert dalgalanmalardan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla yak\u0131n vadeli straddle stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n

200 periyotluk Basit Hareketli Ortalama ile \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fen 4.340\u20134.345 dolar aras\u0131ndaki kritik destek b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Alt\u0131n bu seviyenin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n h\u0131zlanarak fiyatlar\u0131 bir sonraki Fibonacci deste\u011fi olan 4.262 dolara h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00e7ekmesi olas\u0131. Yukar\u0131 tarafta ise 4.427 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin, k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: XAU\/USD 4.400\u2019e toparland\u0131. Dolar zay\u0131f, fakat ECB\/Fed\/BoJ faiz beklentileri bask\u0131 kuruyor. Ortado\u011fu gerilimi petrol\u00fc z\u0131platt\u0131; destek 4.340-4.345, diren\u00e7 4.427-4.529.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t