ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (USD) bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 98,80 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da geriledi. Sat\u0131\u015flar, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ait baz\u0131 tankerleri \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kritik ihracat merkezi Kharg Adas\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda vurmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan arz kesintisi endi\u015felerinin artmas\u0131 ve enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndemde kalmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilir. CME FedWatch Tool \u00fczerinden t\u00fcrev fiyatlamas\u0131, bir sonraki politika toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 olarak i\u015faret ediyor. Haftan\u0131n ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde odak, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na giden patikay\u0131 \u015fekillendirecek ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (PPI) ve T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI) verilerine \u00e7evriliyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta DXY, dokuz periyotluk \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (EMA) 99,07 ve 50 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n 99,69 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; her iki ortalaman\u0131n da fiyat hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini peki\u015ftiriyor. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) yakla\u015f\u0131k 38 seviyesinde, bu da yak\u0131n vadede h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften ziyade a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130lk diren\u00e7 dokuz g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc s\u0131nama 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019da. 125,72 civar\u0131ndaki FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi ise dolar\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki makro inanc\u0131n zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Kharg Adas\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan artan arz endi\u015felerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ham petrolde uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 derhal g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu tesis, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n %90\u2019\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli aksakl\u0131klar bile k\u00fcresel piyasadan g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,5 milyon varile kadar arz\u0131n \u00e7ekilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Tarihsel olarak, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki benzer jeopolitik t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda %10 ila %15 aras\u0131 anl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetiklemi\u015f, bu da h\u0131zla k\u00fcresel enflasyona yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Gerileyen ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in, DXY 99,07\u2019deki 9 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda teknik olarak zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadeli DXY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmeliyiz. Ancak riskimizi, bu haftaki CPI ve PPI verilerinde olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilece\u011fi dikkate al\u0131narak, s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri belirleyerek s\u0131n\u0131rlamal\u0131y\u0131z. \u0130ma edilen volatilite y\u00fckseliyor; bu durum, a\u00e7\u0131klamalar \u00f6ncesinde opsiyonu do\u011frudan sat\u0131n alman\u0131n y\u00fcksek maliyetini azaltmak i\u00e7in debit spread stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60 g\u00f6stermesiyle, Fed\u2019den ani bir \u015fahinle\u015fme ihtimaline haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Enflasyon verileri sonras\u0131 sert hareketlerden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck paritelerde straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejileri \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Enflasyon verileri beklentileri a\u015farsa, DXY\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon kapamalar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131yla endeksin 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 99,69\u2019a do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DXY, 98,80\u2019e gerileyerek \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; petrol, Kharg yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131yla arz ve enflasyon korkusuyla y\u00fckseliyor. Fed\u2019de %60 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler CPI\/PPI\u2019da. Teknikte EMA alt\u0131nda, RSI 38. Opsiyonda put\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t