Ba\u015fbakan Narendra Modi, rupi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran geni\u015fleyen d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dizginlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken hanehalk\u0131na alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131na ara verme \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f toplam ithalat\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %11\u2019ini olu\u015ftururken, petrol\u00fcn pay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %22 seviyesinde. Bask\u0131, enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015fla daha da artt\u0131: Hindistan yak\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse %85\u2019ini ithal ediyor ve ham petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %50\u2019si H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7iyor. Bu arka planda h\u00fck\u00fcmet May\u0131s ay\u0131nda alt\u0131nda g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerini %6\u2019dan %15\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; buna kar\u015f\u0131n Titan Company, ma\u011faza ziyaret\u00e7i trafi\u011findeki art\u0131\u015fla birlikte ikinci \u00e7eyrekte k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131 %63 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130thalat kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131lar artmaya devam etti. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n Mart 2026\u2019da sona eren mali y\u0131lda mal ticareti a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 330 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015farak, bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki 280 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki seviyeden %17,9 y\u00fckseldi. \u0130ki zay\u0131f ay\u0131n ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131 Temmuz\u2019da Haziran\u2019daki 20 tondan tahmini 40\u201345 tona \u00e7\u0131karak ikiye katland\u0131. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verileri, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte m\u00fccevher sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te bir art\u0131\u015fla 21 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, t\u00fcccar gelirlerinin ise %30\u201360 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Talep geni\u015f tabana yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumda: Yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te ikisi kentsel merkezler d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan geliyor. 2018 tarihli ICE360 anketi, her iki haneden birinin be\u015f y\u0131l i\u00e7inde alt\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, hanelerin %87\u2019sinin alt\u0131n sahibi oldu\u011funu ve en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir dilimindeki ailelerin %75\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar alt\u0131n bulundurdu\u011funu ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n
Hindistan\u2019\u0131n yo\u011fun festival ve d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn sezonuna girmesiyle birlikte t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in net ve y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin ithalat vergilerini agresif bi\u00e7imde %15\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesine ra\u011fmen, \u00fclkenin alt\u0131na olan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015ftah\u0131 h\u0131zla geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri ve al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda (call) belirgin bir y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak Hindistan\u2019da alt\u0131n talebi, Dhanteras ve Diwali gibi \u00f6nemli festivallerin etkisiyle Eyl\u00fcl-Kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde s\u0131\u00e7rama yapar. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llarda yerel alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 10 gram ba\u015f\u0131na 75.000 rupinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak rekor k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bile fiziki al\u0131mlar neredeyse hi\u00e7 gerilemedi. Yerel kuyumcular\u0131n \u015fu anda stoklar\u0131n\u0131 aktif bi\u00e7imde yenilemesiyle, yurt i\u00e7i MCX alt\u0131n kontratlar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda makroekonomik bask\u0131ya bakarak Hindistan rupisinde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Mart 2026\u2019da sona eren mali y\u0131lda 330 milyar dolara ula\u015fan dev d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, yerel para birimi \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. USD\/INR paritesinde uzun vadeli i\u015flem (long futures) almak, devam eden rupi de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a etkili bir yol.<\/p>\n
Kontrol edilemeyen alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131 ile y\u00fcksek k\u00fcresel ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fimi, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k dengesini belirgin bi\u00e7imde bozuyor. Veriler, ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu h\u0131zda geni\u015fledi\u011finde rupinin tarihsel olarak dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ayarlamalar ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu makro trendden yararlanmak i\u00e7in rupide ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejilerinin veya USD\/INR\u2019de uzun al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (long call) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Modi alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131na \u201cfren\u201d istiyor ama talep festival sezonuyla yeniden co\u015fuyor: ithalat ikiye katland\u0131, ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 330 milyar $. Sonu\u00e7: rupide bask\u0131, alt\u0131n\/ USDINR\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t