Meksika pesosu, Meksika\u2019n\u0131n mali paketinin Kongre\u2019ye sevk edilmesinin beklenmesiyle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti. USD\/MXN, 16,99\u2019u g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 16,91 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Claudia Sheinbaum, 2 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 2027 b\u00fct\u00e7esinin \u201csorumlu\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; yat\u0131r\u0131m ile sosyal refah, sa\u011fl\u0131k ve e\u011fitim harcamalar\u0131na k\u0131s\u0131t getirmeden mali konsolidasyonu hedefleyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Banamex, b\u00fct\u00e7enin giderek daha kat\u0131 hale gelen k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n harcama kesintilerinin kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00fcklenmesine yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi ve bunun da orta vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131layabilece\u011fi riskine dikkat \u00e7ekti. Meksika takviminde \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u011fustos enflasyonu, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda New York T\u00fcketici Anketi, orta vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin bir miktar geriledi\u011fini, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerin ise kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (T\u00dcFE) \u00e7evriliyor; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeler 25 baz puanl\u0131k Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Para piyasalar\u0131 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %63 olarak fiyatl\u0131yordu; b\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m Meksika\u2013ABD faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 daraltarak USD\/MXN\u2019yi yeniden 17,00\u2019ye do\u011fru itebilir. Teknik olarak parite 16,9156 seviyesindeydi; 17,2285 civar\u0131ndaki 50-, 100- ve 200-g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA k\u00fcmelenmesinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, RSI (14) 35\u2019e yak\u0131n ve destek 16,8866 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/MXN\u2019nin 16,91 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artabilecek oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Yakla\u015fan Meksika b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve kritik ABD enflasyon verilerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasan\u0131n bu \u00f6nemli ekonomik kataliz\u00f6rleri fiyatlamas\u0131yla iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek sert hareketlerden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Meksika\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015fan 2027 mali paketi, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin mali kredibilitesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u0131nav niteli\u011finde. Meksika\u2019n\u0131n kamu borcunun GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k %48,6 seviyesinde seyrederken, hata pay\u0131 son derece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. B\u00fct\u00e7enin, endi\u015fe edildi\u011fi gibi sosyal harcamalar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smaya y\u00f6nelmesi halinde, pesonun zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekleriz; bu durumda USD\/MXN al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 korunma (hedge) amac\u0131yla olduk\u00e7a cazip hale gelir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verileri, faiz beklentilerini tamamen yeniden \u015fekillendirebilir. Para piyasalar\u0131 \u015fu anda Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %63 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da ABD ile Meksika aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak bu faiz fark\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde sermaye geli\u015fen piyasalardan \u00e7\u0131kma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden, USD\/MXN\u2019nin 17,00 e\u015fi\u011fini h\u0131zla a\u015farak y\u00fckselmesi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/MXN, 17,2285 civar\u0131ndaki 50 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Paritenin 16,8866\u2019daki yak\u0131n destek taban\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiririz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 17,00 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcne i\u015faret edece\u011finden, 17,22 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesini hedefleyen uzun al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmeyi gerektirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Meksika b\u00fct\u00e7esi ve ABD enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesi USD\/MXN 16,91\u2019de yatay: Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (%63) 17,00\u2019u tetikleyebilir. Teknikte 16,8866 destek, 17,2285 diren\u00e7; straddle\/hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t