EUR\/GBP, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc alt\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck dip seviyeye geriledikten sonra toparland\u0131; \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey\u2019nin temkinli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sterlin, ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinin \u00e7o\u011fu kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Parite, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 0,8570 civar\u0131ndaki dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 0,8587 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bailey, \u0130ngiltere Parlamentosu Hazine Se\u00e7im Komitesi\u2019ne enflasyon risklerinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu, yak\u0131n vadede bir resesyon beklemedi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken; ko\u015fulsuz bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131 fikrine de kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
A\u00e7\u0131klamalar, BoE\u2019nin 17 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Banka Faizi\u2019ni %3,75\u2019te sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Reuters\u2019\u0131n 4-8 Eyl\u00fcl tarihleri aras\u0131nda anket yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 65 ekonomistin tamam\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemezken, 57\u2019si y\u0131l sonuna kadar da faizlerin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc mevduat faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olacak ve politikalardaki ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 euro lehine geni\u015fletecek. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Maliye Bakan\u0131 John Healey\u2019nin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine ili\u015fkin konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair endi\u015feler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Rabobank, g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek yabanc\u0131 sahipli\u011fi nedeniyle \u0130ngiliz tahvillerinde (gilt) hassasiyete i\u015faret ederken, pozisyonlanman\u0131n sterlini k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ekledi; banka, \u00fc\u00e7 ay vadede EUR\/GBP\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc biasla 0,87\u2019ye do\u011fru hareket \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/GBP kurunun 0,8700 seviyesine do\u011fru istikrarl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi hedefleyecek \u015fekilde pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u0130ki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere gitmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, EUR\/GBP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak veya bo\u011fa call spread stratejisi uygulamak cazip bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi, euronun g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 0,8570 dip seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 0,8587\u2019ye toparlanmas\u0131yla da destekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Stratejimiz, faiz getirisi fark\u0131ndaki kapanmadan yararlan\u0131yor. Zira ECB\u2019nin bu Per\u015fembe mevduat faizini %2,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltmesi beklenirken, BoE\u2019nin gelecek hafta %3,75\u2019te \u201cpas\u201d ge\u00e7mesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte bir faiz fark\u0131 daralmas\u0131, bir ay i\u00e7inde euronun sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %1,5 ila %2\u2019lik bir ralli \u00fcretme e\u011filiminde. Call opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 \u015fekilde faydalan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlayabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvili piyasas\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda dola\u015f\u0131mdaki gilt\u2019lerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019una sahip. Maliye Bakan\u0131 John Healey\u2019den gelebilecek olumsuz bir mali haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, uluslararas\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015fa y\u00f6nelmesine yol a\u00e7abilir ve beraberinde sterlini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu potansiyel k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, ani yukar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 yakalamak ad\u0131na EUR\/GBP kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u015eu anda EUR\/GBP z\u0131mni volatilitesi g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede, yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,2 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; bu da opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 maliyet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a elveri\u015fli k\u0131l\u0131yor. 0,8700\u2019e do\u011fru \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen hareketi daha iyi yakalamak i\u00e7in bu t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n 30-90 g\u00fcn vadeli bir sona erme penceresiyle kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu \u201cuzun volatilite\u201d duru\u015fu, mali sorunlar veya para politikas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimleri sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 tetiklerse fayda sa\u011flamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n verecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin zay\u0131fl\u0131yor, EUR\/GBP dipten d\u00f6n\u00fcp 0,8587\u2019ye toparland\u0131. Bailey\u2019nin temkini BoE\u2019nin %3,75\u2019te kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini peki\u015ftirirken, ECB art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; hedef 0,87, opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t