USD\/JPY, 153 piplik bir sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 154,50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda yatay seyretti; temmuz \u00fccret verisiyle bir yenden fazla geriledikten sonra hareketi geri ald\u0131. Japonya\u2019da kalan d\u00f6rt seansta ba\u015fka bir yurti\u00e7i veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bulunmuyor. Nominal nakit kazan\u00e7lar %4,7 artarak %3,9\u2019luk beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131 ve Ocak 1997\u2019den bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydetti; baz \u00fccretler %4,1 y\u00fckselerek Nisan 1992\u2019den bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Reel \u00fccretler %2,4 artt\u0131; bu, \u00fcst \u00fcste yedinci art\u0131\u015f ve son be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n en iyi performans\u0131 oldu. \u0130lkbahar \u00fccret turu %5,01\u2019e ula\u015farak \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131lda da %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ve revize edilmi\u015f 2\u00c7 y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1,1 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 %1,4\u2019e y\u00fckseltildi; deflat\u00f6r %2,6\u2019da sabit kald\u0131. \u0130kramiyeler, revize %4,7\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan %6,3 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; fazla mesai art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %3,1\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131; ikramiye ve fazla mesainin hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011fu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm %2,7 artt\u0131 ve \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim yatay kald\u0131. Cari denge, \u00a592,3 milyar a\u00e7\u0131ktan \u00a52,988 trilyon temmuz fazlas\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc; \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi ise %1,9\u2019dan %2,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri a\u011fustosta %6,2 d\u00fc\u015ferek 1,208 trilyon dolara gerilerken, menkul k\u0131ymetler 87,8 milyar dolar azald\u0131. Bu, temmuz sonundaki Tokyo\u2013Washington ortak operasyonunun ard\u0131ndan geldi; s\u00f6z konusu hamle USD\/JPY\u2019yi iki seansta 164,00\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131ndan 157,50\u2019ye do\u011fru \u00e7ekmi\u015f, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 155,50\u2019nin alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f, ard\u0131ndan 1 Eyl\u00fcl itibar\u0131yla yeniden 160,00 civar\u0131na d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O tarihten bu yana parite be\u015f seansta yedi yenden fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; 154,00 seviyesi defalarca k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p geri al\u0131nd\u0131. Tahminler art\u0131k 150\u2019lerin alt b\u00f6lgesinde k\u00fcmeleniyor; yen bu y\u0131l\u0131n en iyi performans g\u00f6steren maj\u00f6r\u00fc konumunda ve parite 2026 ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda. ABD\u2019de izlenecek veriler aras\u0131nda, \u00e7ar\u015famba 12:15 GMT\u2019de 11,75 binin ard\u0131ndan d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam ortalamas\u0131; per\u015fembe 12:30 GMT\u2019de temmuzda yataydan sonra %0,4 ayl\u0131k, %4,7\u2019den sonra %5,3 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenen \u00dcFE (\u00e7ekirdek %0,3 ve %4,6) yer al\u0131yor. \u0130\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 206 binin ard\u0131ndan 205 bin bekleniyor; mevcut konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise 14:00 GMT\u2019de %1,7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Cuma 12:30 GMT\u2019de T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %0,4 ayl\u0131k, %3,4 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve \u00e7ekirde\u011fin %2,4 gelmesi bekleniyor; Fed\u2019in 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 25 baz puan olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasalarda yakla\u015f\u0131k %58 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Michigan g\u00fcven endeksi 51,7\u2019den sonra 51 beklenirken, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4 seviyesindeydi; BOJ iki g\u00fcn sonra toplan\u0131yor. Teknik seviyelerde 154,50 diren\u00e7; ard\u0131ndan 155,00 ve 155,50; \u00fcstte 156,00, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019nin 158,00\u2019in hemen alt\u0131nda, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019nin ise 159,50 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Destek 154,00; ard\u0131ndan 153,00\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131, 152,50 ve 152,00. Stoch RSI 76 civar\u0131nda, be\u015f dakikal\u0131k okumada 75\u2019e yak\u0131n; 155,50 \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z; \u00f6zellikle de parite 154,50 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorlan\u0131rken. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI\u2019n\u0131n 76 seviyesinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve yedi yenlik sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak ya da 154,50\u2019ye do\u011fru tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde pariteyi satmak olduk\u00e7a elveri\u015fli bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunuyor. \u0130lk hedef olarak 153,00\u2019daki yak\u0131n deste\u011fi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ivmesi h\u0131zlan\u0131rsa ikincil hedef olarak 152,00 b\u00f6lgesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, tahvil getirisi farklar\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor; ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili ile Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili aras\u0131ndaki spread ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 400 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken, son d\u00f6nemde 280 baz puan\u0131n alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verilerinin, 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de beklenen Fed faiz indirimini (piyasa olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fu an %58) peki\u015ftirmesi y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k. Bu faiz fark\u0131ndaki daralman\u0131n parite \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i toparlanmalar\u0131n ise k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Tokyo\u2019nun temmuzdaki ortak m\u00fcdahale s\u0131ras\u0131nda yabanc\u0131 menkul k\u0131ymetlerde 87,8 milyar dolarl\u0131k sert azalt\u0131ma gitmesi, otoritelerin USD\/JPY\u2019de kontrols\u00fcz s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu agresif duru\u015f, temmuzda nominal \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %4,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesiyle birle\u015fti\u011finde, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki beklenen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in zemini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Her iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kritik kararlar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca iki g\u00fcn arayla a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz volatiliteden faydalanmak \u00fczere uzun straddle gibi volatilite odakl\u0131 opsiyon stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 154,50 alt\u0131nda yatay: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Japon \u00fccretleri ve m\u00fcdahale sinyali yen\u2019i destekliyor. ABD enflasyon verileri ve Fed indirimi beklentisiyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma masada; 154,00 alt\u0131 152,00 hedefi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t