EUR\/USD, Avrupa\u2019da gaz fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rman\u0131rken ve ECB\u2019nin Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenirken, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 28 piplik dar bantta ge\u00e7en ve a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n yaln\u0131zca yar\u0131m pip alt\u0131nda kapanan i\u015flemlerin ard\u0131ndan 1.1600 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutundu. Hollanda \u00f6n ay do\u011fal gaz kontrat\u0131, Ocak 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karak g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %3,4\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseldi; megavat-saat ba\u015f\u0131na 75,00 \u20ac civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %128 art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. Depolama doluluk oran\u0131 ise \u0131s\u0131nma sezonuna bir aydan az s\u00fcre kala, mevsim normu olan %83\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 %67 seviyesinde bulunuyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 28 \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana kapal\u0131 ve Katar, Avrupa ve Asya sevkiyatlar\u0131nda sonbahar boyunca m\u00fccbir sebep uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 uzatt\u0131; Rusya\u2019dan boru hatt\u0131yla gelen gaz\u0131n pay\u0131 talebin yakla\u015f\u0131k %40\u2019\u0131ndan %15\u2019in alt\u0131na gerilerken, blok art\u0131k y\u0131lda 120 milyar metrek\u00fcp\u00fcn \u00fczerinde deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan gaz sat\u0131n al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc mevduat faizini %2,25\u2019ten %2,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi ve ana refinansman oran\u0131n\u0131 %2,65\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak enerji maliyetleri daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor: gaz son bir ayda %23 artt\u0131. Kas\u0131m depolama hedefi %90\u2019dan %80\u2019e gev\u015fetildi ve depolama seviyesi, seri 2011\u2019de ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana tarihsel olarak bu tarihte g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde. Ard\u0131ndan ABD verileri takvimi yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor: \u00c7ar\u015famba 12:15 GMT\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 (\u00f6nceki 11,75 bin) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:15 GMT\u2019de Fed karar\u0131, 12:30 GMT\u2019de \u00dcFE ve 12:45 GMT\u2019de bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 izlenecek. \u00dcFE\u2019nin Temmuz\u2019daki yatay seyrin ard\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k %0,4; y\u0131ll\u0131k ise %4,7\u2019den %5,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, \u00e7ekirde\u011fin ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,6 gelmesi bekleniyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,4, y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 ve \u00e7ekirdek %2,4 seviyesinde a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %58 fiyatlan\u0131rken, Michigan g\u00fcven endeksi 51 (\u00f6nceki 51,7) ve bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi (\u00f6nceki %4) takip edilecek. Teknik tarafta diren\u00e7 1.1650\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 1.1700\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda; destek 1.1600\u2019de bulunuyor. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 1.1550\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinde yaln\u0131zca 6 pip aral\u0131kl\u0131 seyrederken, 1.1500 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da izleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131; ana senaryoda 1.1600 destek seviyesinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. ECB\u2019nin bu Per\u015fembe mevduat faizini %2,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi beklense de, y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri taraf\u0131ndaki bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n h\u0131zla kabaran haftal\u0131k enerji faturalar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda tamamen g\u00f6lgede kal\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadleri (terms-of-trade) krizinin aktif bi\u00e7imde b\u00f6lgeden sermaye \u00e7ekti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 para birimini desteklemekte yetersiz kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Avrupa do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 megavat-saat ba\u015f\u0131na 75 \u20ac seviyesine yak\u0131nken (ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re %128 art\u0131\u015f), Euro B\u00f6lgesi k\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesinde ciddi bir ithalat faturas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. AB gaz depolar\u0131 mevsim normu %83\u2019e k\u0131yasla yaln\u0131zca %67 dolulukta; bu durum, kamu hizmeti \u015firketlerini pahal\u0131 deniz yoluyla gelen kargolar i\u00e7in rekabete zorluyor. Bu arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, 2022 enerji krizini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde t\u0131rmanan ithalat maliyetleri Euro\u2019yu Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda paritenin alt\u0131na itmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, 1.1650 direncinin paritenin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa pozisyon aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kritik 1.1600 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, 1.1550 civar\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen 50 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir. Bu k\u00fcmenin de k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde bir sonraki ana a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hedef, psikolojik 1.1500 seviyesi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD enflasyon ve istihdam verileri Dolar\u2019\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Piyasalar Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD T\u00dcFE verisine odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,4 gelmesi ve olas\u0131 bir Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlanmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n yap\u0131sal enerji a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile birle\u015fen bu parasal ayr\u0131\u015fma, Euro\u2019da ucuz a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma (downside protection) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekiyor; \u0130ran-Umman ge\u00e7i\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde bir ilerleme, gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek EUR\/USD\u2019de sert bir k\u0131sa pozisyon s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na (short-squeeze) yol a\u00e7abilir. Ancak g\u00fcvenli bir deniz rotas\u0131 resmen teminat alt\u0131na al\u0131nana kadar, Euro \u00fczerindeki temel bask\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor. Beklenen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 momentumdan faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gaz \u015foku Euro\u2019yu bo\u011fuyor: ECB\u2019nin olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 etkisiz kal\u0131rken EUR\/USD 1.1600 \u00fczerinde tutunuyor. Depolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, ithalat faturas\u0131 kabar\u0131yor; ABD enflasyon\/Fed takvimi Dolar\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip 1.1600 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla 1.1550-1.1500 hedefliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t