TD Securities, Kolombiya pesosununun (COP) s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ile daha gev\u015fek maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131 birle\u015ftiren politika zemininin deste\u011fiyle daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fcksek getirili para birimlerinden biri oldu\u011funu, ancak bu deste\u011fin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini belirtti. COP, 2026\u2019n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde Kolombiya\u2019daki ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi; ancak TD, USD\/COP i\u00e7in hem k\u0131sa hem de uzun vadeli ger\u00e7e\u011fe uygun de\u011feri 3.200\u20133.300 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda konumland\u0131rarak, a\u011fustosta 3.000\u2019e do\u011fru ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131ktan yoksun oldu\u011funu ve h\u0131zla yeniden 3.100\u20133.200 i\u015flem band\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Banka, Banco de la Rep\u00fablica\u2019n\u0131n (BanRep) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn yak\u0131nda sona ermesini bekliyor ve faizlerin 2022 seviyelerine geri d\u00f6nmesi i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alan g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Enflasyon 2022\u2019de %13\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeyken 2026\u2019da %6\u2019ya gerileyerek ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Maliye politikas\u0131nda ise De La Espriella y\u00f6netimi alt\u0131nda konsolidasyon beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; bu da Kolombiya\u2019n\u0131n son y\u0131llardaki pozitif mali ivmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r. \u0130\u00e7 ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015firken TD, USD\/COP\u2019de 3.000\u2019in alt\u0131na do\u011fru alan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu nedenle paritenin riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f \u015foklar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere daha a\u00e7\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Kolombiya pesosunun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrinin t\u00fckenme sinyalleri vermesiyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/COP paritesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. A\u011fustosta ge\u00e7ici olarak 3.000 seviyesine do\u011fru sarkan kur, h\u0131zla 3.100\u20133.200 band\u0131na geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu toparlanma, para biriminde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn art\u0131k ciddi bi\u00e7imde k\u0131s\u0131tland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, asimetrik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 Banco de la Rep\u00fablica parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 tamamlarken, Kolombiya\u2019n\u0131n agresif y\u00fcksek getiri deste\u011finin sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Kolombiya\u2019da enflasyon, 2022\u2019de g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz %13,12\u2019lik zirveye k\u0131yasla 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %6 seviyesine belirgin bi\u00e7imde geriledi. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, g\u00f6sterge faizi %10 seviyesine do\u011fru indirerek, daha \u00f6nce pesoyu koruyan y\u00fcksek getiri tamponunu a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Maliye cephesinde ise De La Espriella y\u00f6netimi alt\u0131nda daha s\u0131k\u0131 kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6nceki y\u0131llar\u0131n gev\u015fek maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n yerini almas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Mali konsolidasyona ge\u00e7i\u015f, yerel ekonominin ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekte i\u00e7 talep\/mali te\u015fvik deste\u011finden faydalanamayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu destekleyici i\u00e7 dinamikler zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a, peso k\u00fcresel piyasalardan gelebilecek d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler taraf\u0131nda, 3.200\u20133.300 ger\u00e7e\u011fe uygun de\u011fer band\u0131na olas\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in USD\/COP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, ani k\u00fcresel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in maliyet-etkin bir yol sunar. 3.000\u2019deki kritik psikolojik taban\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na bariyer yap\u0131lar\u0131 veya zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri yerle\u015ftirmek, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filime pozisyon almay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken sermayeyi korumaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz: Kolombiya pesosunda ralli t\u00fckeniyor. TD Securities, faiz d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn biti\u015fi ve mali konsolidasyonla COP deste\u011finin zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, USD\/COP\u2019un 3.200\u20133.300 adil de\u011fere y\u00f6nelip 3.000 alt\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t