Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi, 52.900 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken yakla\u015f\u0131k 190 puan geriledi ve ham petrol\u00fcn alt\u0131nc\u0131 seans\u0131na y\u00fckseli\u015fle devam etmesi ve iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin Ocak 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla 52.800 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcHO\u2019suna (EMA) geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Brent 98,00 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, WTI Mart ay\u0131ndaki yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck seriden bu yana en uzun y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini uzatt\u0131; ABD kuvvetlerinin \u00fc\u00e7 \u0130ran tankerini vurmas\u0131 ve birini bat\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan. \u0130ran, ABD mevzilerine balistik f\u00fczeler f\u0131rlatm\u0131\u015f; Husilerin \u0130HA\u2019lar\u0131 ve f\u00fczeleri Abha, Necran ve Cizan\u2019daki Saudi Aramco tesislerini vurmu\u015f, operasyonlar durdurulmu\u015f ve 70\u2019ten fazla ki\u015fi yaralanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapanmas\u0131yla Suudi ihracat\u0131 K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki Yanbu\u2019ya y\u00f6nlendirilirken, bo\u011fazdan tanker trafi\u011fi normalin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti. Rafineri kapasitesi Rusya ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019de de k\u0131s\u0131tlan\u0131rken, ABD motorini galon ba\u015f\u0131na 5,90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak rekor k\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tahviller bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri, ge\u00e7en hafta Kas\u0131m 2023 zirvesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra %4,80\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyretti. Vadeli i\u015flemler, 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %58 olarak fiyatlad\u0131. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n misilleme tarifeleri, 04:01 GMT itibar\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k ABD men\u015feli \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u00e7in devreye girdi; 700\u2019den fazla kalemde %15, %25 ve %50 oranlar\u0131 uygulan\u0131rken, \u00e7elik ve al\u00fcminyum tarifeleri %50\u2019ye iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Sanayi hisseleri endeks a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %16\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor ve ABD \u00e7elik ile al\u00fcminyumuna ithalatta halihaz\u0131rda %50 vergi uygulan\u0131yor. Karar \u00f6ncesinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD enflasyon verileri; 10 Eyl\u00fcl Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:30 GMT\u2019de \u00dcFE (man\u015fet y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,3, \u00e7ekirdek %4,6) ve 11 Eyl\u00fcl Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:30 GMT\u2019de T\u00dcFE (man\u015fet %3,4, \u00e7ekirdek %2,4) olacak; FOMC 5 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den bu yana \u201csessizlik d\u00f6nemi\u201dnde. New York Fed\u2019in A\u011fustos anketi, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisini %3,6, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,0 ve \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,2 g\u00f6sterdi; kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n %44,4\u2019\u00fc bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, i\u015f kayb\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %13,8 oldu. Teknik seviyeler aras\u0131nda 53.100, 53.250, 53.500, 53.800 ve 54.750\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131 (yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,5 yukar\u0131) diren\u00e7; 52.700, 52.500, 52.000 ve 51.300 destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcHO 50.200 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019nin 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan kritik 52.800 seviyesini test ederken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Brent petrol\u00fcn 98,00 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesi ile iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, hisse senetleri i\u00e7in \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda 10 dolarl\u0131k bir s\u0131\u00e7rama, man\u015fet enflasyonu 0,2 ila 0,3 puan y\u00fckseltebilir; bu da 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na sadece g\u00fcnler kala Fed\u2019in planlar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapanmas\u0131 ve alternatif K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131n\u0131 da aksatan yeni sald\u0131r\u0131larla, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeliyiz. ABD motorini galon ba\u015f\u0131na 5,90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak tarih\u00ee rekor k\u0131rd\u0131; bu durum sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc genelinde \u015firket marjlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan tehdit ediyor. Bir merkez bankas\u0131 jeopolitik arz \u015fokunu \u201csondajla\u201d \u00e7\u00f6zemeyece\u011finden, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu anda fiyatlanan %58 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi olduk\u00e7a muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019n\u0131n 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k ABD \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine getirdi\u011fi %15 ile %50 aras\u0131ndaki yeni misilleme tarifelerini de hesaba katmal\u0131y\u0131z; bu tarifeler, \u00e7elik ve al\u00fcminyum gibi sanayi kollar\u0131n\u0131 yo\u011fun bi\u00e7imde hedef al\u0131yor. Sanayi hisseleri Dow\u2019un toplam a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %16\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fundan, bu ani ticaret gerilimi girdi maliyetlerini hemen art\u0131racak ve marjlar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapanlar, bu tarifelerin zaten k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir endeks \u00fczerinde ek bir y\u00fck olu\u015fturmas\u0131 nedeniyle sanayi maruziyetini hedge etmeyi de\u011ferlendirmelidir.<\/p>\n
Endeks 53.250 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece Dow\u2019da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; 10 ve 11 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00dcFE ve T\u00dcFE verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Endeks 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcHO olan 52.800\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f al\u0131rsa, FOMC sessizlik d\u00f6nemi bitmeden \u00f6nce geri \u00e7ekilmenin h\u0131zla 52.000 seviyesini hedeflemesini bekliyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma y\u00f6nelik put opsiyonlar\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli endeks vadeli pozisyonlar\u0131 kullanmak en temkinli yol olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jeopolitik \u015fok piyasalar\u0131 sarst\u0131! Dow, petrol 98 dolar ve 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri zirvesiyle 52.800 EMA\u2019ya indi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi, rekor dizel ve Kanada tarifeleri Fed-faiz riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49967,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t