NZD\/USD sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,37 geriledi ve 0,5855 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u00c7in\u2019den gelen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerinin ard\u0131ndan Kiwi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 artt\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in ticaret fazlas\u0131 a\u011fustosta temmuzdaki 112,5 milyar dolardan 119,09 milyar dolara geni\u015flerken, ihracat y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %23,9\u2019luk \u00f6nceki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 takiben %25 y\u00fckseldi. \u0130thalat ise y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %28,2 artt\u0131; bu oran temmuzdaki %27,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde ancak beklenen %30 temposunun alt\u0131nda kalarak, \u00c7in\u2019in Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle NZD\u2019ye deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kay\u0131plar, piyasalar\u0131n Fed politikas\u0131na y\u00f6n verecek ABD \u00dcFE ve T\u00dcFE verilerini beklemesiyle birlikte dolar\u0131n genel zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sayesinde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131. ABD istihdam verileri, a\u011fustosta tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n (NFP) 162 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re fiyatlama eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na %58\u2019in \u00fczerinde olas\u0131l\u0131k atfediyor. Jeopolitik riskler de g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor: ABD\u2019nin petrol ve do\u011fal gaz altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tehditler ve k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden olas\u0131 kesintiler, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutarak Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n ithal enerji maliyeti hassasiyetini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Saatlik \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444ikte NZD\/USD 0,5858\u2019de; 100 saatlik SMA olan 0,5871\u2019in ve 200 saatlik SMA olan 0,5893\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda seyrediyor. RSI 46 civar\u0131nda; destekler 0,5856 ve ard\u0131ndan 0,5836, diren\u00e7ler ise 0,5871, 0,5893 ve 0,5903 seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n NZD\/USD paritesinde savunmac\u0131, k\u0131sa (short) y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00c7in, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve tarihsel olarak toplam mal ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu absorbe ediyor; bu da beklenti alt\u0131nda kalan %28,2\u2019lik ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Kiwi talebini do\u011frudan zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u00c7in\u2019de i\u00e7 toparlanma ivme kaybederken, Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enerji maliyetlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f de hesaba kat\u0131lmal\u0131; zira Yeni Zelanda ham petrol ve petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde %90\u2019dan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015f kaynaklara ba\u011fl\u0131 \u015fekilde temin ediyor. Jeopolitik gerilimlerin, d\u00fcnya petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si i\u00e7in bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 tehdit etmesiyle, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini daha da bozmas\u0131 muhtemel. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131ktan, daha derin bir ekonomik yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla NZD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak yararlanabilir.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; \u00f6zellikle de piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 bu ay Federal Reserve\u2019den faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na %58 olas\u0131l\u0131k atfederken. Tarihsel olarak Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131rken ve Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) zay\u0131f k\u00fcresel taleple kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131rken, getiri fark\u0131 dolar lehine a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor. NZD\/USD\u2019de haber kaynakl\u0131 ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerde limit emirlerle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 100 saatlik SMA (0,5871) ile 200 saatlik SMA (0,5893) aras\u0131ndaki yo\u011fun arz b\u00f6lgesinin hemen \u00fczerine zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 tavsiye edilir. Parite 0,5856\u2019daki yak\u0131n vadeli taban\u0131n alt\u0131na net bi\u00e7imde sarkarsa, bir sonraki kritik destek olan 0,5836\u2019ya do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz. Bu haftaki ABD T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda beklenen y\u00fcksek volatiliteyi y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutulmas\u0131 faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kiwi\u2019de alarm zilleri: NZD\/USD 0,5855\u2019e gerilerken kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k \u00c7in ticaret verileri deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. ABD T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE ve Fed beklentisi odakta; teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 0,5836\u2019ya sarkma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50546,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t