National Bank of Canada, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n (CAD) haziran sonundaki 19 ayl\u0131k dipten toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 3. \u00e7eyrekte de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Haziran sonunda USD\/CAD 1,42\u2019ye yak\u0131n seyrederken, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yurt i\u00e7i veriler, petrol ve alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ile ticaret gerilimlerinin azalaca\u011f\u0131na dair erken d\u00f6nemdeki beklentiler pariteyi 21 A\u011fustos\u2019ta 1,377\u2019ye kadar ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; ancak Ottawa\u2013Washington g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri daha sonra sekteye u\u011frad\u0131. USD\/CAD o tarihten bu yana yeniden 1,38\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ancak \u201cloonie\u201d ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7eyrek ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5 art\u0131da.<\/p>\n
Banka, a\u011fustosta H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilimlere i\u015faret ediyor. Buna g\u00f6re, y\u0131l sonuna kadar normalle\u015fmeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131na yans\u0131yan olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %50\u2019nin \u00fczerindeyken %30\u2019un alt\u0131na geriledi; bu da petrol ve alt\u0131nda CAD\u2019i destekleyen jeopolitik risk priminin korunmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca yeni ABD tarifeleri ve daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 ticaret belirsizli\u011fini Kanada b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor ve ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma konusunda temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savunuyor. Bankan\u0131n tahminine g\u00f6re USD\/CAD \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,40\u2019a do\u011fru toparlanacak, ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019ye kadar yeniden d\u00fc\u015ferek 1,33\u2019e yakla\u015facak.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CAD paritesinde 1,40 seviyesine do\u011fru k\u0131sa vadeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kanada dolar\u0131ndaki son ralli, ticaret gerilimlerinin yeniden artmas\u0131 ve tarife riskleri nedeniyle duraksad\u0131; bu durum k\u0131sa vadeli USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ge\u00e7ici zay\u0131fl\u0131k, parite yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,38 seviyesindeyken ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131p daha sonra geri \u00e7ekilmesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, emtia piyasalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan da destekleniyor: Alt\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.500 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki tarihi zirvelerini korurken, Brent petrol k\u00fcresel arz risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek hassasiyetini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc alt\u0131n ve enerji ihracat\u0131, Kanada ekonomisi i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturur; bu da \u201cloonie\u201dnin ne kadar zay\u0131flayabilece\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r. Bu emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira nihayetinde Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir patikaya y\u00f6nlendirmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacaklar.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD paritesi 1,40 e\u015fi\u011fine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u00e2r\u0131 realize etmesini ve daha uzun vadeli CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f yapmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Ticaret m\u00fczakerelerinin zaman i\u00e7inde yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla kurun y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirerek 2027\u2019ye kadar 1,33\u2019e do\u011fru gerilemesini bekliyoruz. 1,40 tavan\u0131na yak\u0131n seviyelerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc USD\/CAD sat\u0131m (put) spread pozisyonlar\u0131na girmek, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen bu uzun vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften getiriyi azamiye \u00e7\u0131karmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" CAD ralli yapt\u0131 ama f\u0131rt\u0131na bitmedi: National Bank, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi ve tarife riskleriyle USD\/CAD\u2019in haftalarda 1,40\u2019a toparlay\u0131p 2027\u2019ye dek 1,33\u2019e gerilemesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t