{"id":53773,"date":"2026-09-08T17:27:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T17:27:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/td-securities-2026da-usd-brl-egilimi-yukari-yonlu-kalirken-secim-ve-maliye-risklerine-dikkat-cekiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T17:27:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T17:27:11","slug":"td-securities-2026da-usd-brl-egilimi-yukari-yonlu-kalirken-secim-ve-maliye-risklerine-dikkat-cekiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-2026da-usd-brl-egilimi-yukari-yonlu-kalirken-secim-ve-maliye-risklerine-dikkat-cekiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, 2026\u2019da USD\/BRL e\u011filimi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kal\u0131rken se\u00e7im ve maliye risklerine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD Securities, se\u00e7im d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ili\u015fkin risklerin Brezilya reali \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve paritenin ge\u00e7en ay 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama (SMA) direncini test etmesinin ard\u0131ndan USD\/BRL\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtiyor. Banka, Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair kal\u0131c\u0131 endi\u015feleri temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, yurt i\u00e7i siyasi man\u015fetler hareketli kald\u0131k\u00e7a k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filimin USD\/BRL\u2019de daha y\u00fcksek seviyeler y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu savunuyor.<\/p>\n

Kurum ayr\u0131ca, USD\/BRL\u2019nin 2026\u2019daki fiyat hareketlerinin 2014 ile %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde korelasyon g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor; s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde maliye politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131yla parite eyl\u00fclde y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. TD Securities, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in USD\/BRL tahminini 5,30\u2019da koruyor ve bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede mevcut seviyelerde carry amac\u0131yla BRL ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u00f6nermiyor; USD\/BRL\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeden \u00f6nce daha cazip giri\u015f noktalar\u0131 beklemeyi tercih ediyor.<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7im Belirsizli\u011fi ve Mali Riskler Reali G\u00f6lgeliyor<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Brezilya reali (BRL) al\u0131m\u0131ndan veya USD\/BRL\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7maktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama direncini istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde test ederken, ABD dolar\u0131 lehine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum sergiliyor. Kritik \u00f6nemdeki ekim genel se\u00e7imlerine haftalar kala, siyasi belirsizlik real \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutacak.<\/p>\n

USD\/BRL\u2019nin bu y\u0131lki fiyat hareketlerinin, oynak 2014 se\u00e7im d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcyle %70 korelasyon payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not ediyoruz. O y\u0131l\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda gev\u015fek maliye politikas\u0131na dair endi\u015feler, dolar\u0131n real kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli yapmas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemi\u015fti. Bug\u00fcn ise Ba\u015fkan Lula\u2019n\u0131n anketlerdeki \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve mali harcama kesintilerine mesafeli duru\u015fu, piyasada \u00e7ok benzer bir reaksiyon yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Savunmac\u0131 Konumlanma ve Temkinli \u0130\u015flem Stratejisi<\/h3>\n

Temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n br\u00fct bor\u00e7\/GSYH oran\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l %78,5 seviyesine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla artan riskler taraf\u0131ndan da destekleniyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in politika faizi Selic\u2019i y\u00fcksek %10,75\u2019te tutsa da, y\u00fcksek getiri siyasi riskleri telafi etmeye yetmiyor. Bu nedenle, BRL carry i\u015flemlerinde risk-getiri oran\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu anda olduk\u00e7a elveri\u015fsiz oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Savunmac\u0131 bir duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 ve 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in USD\/BRL tahminimizin 5,30 seviyesinde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, USD\/BRL\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon almak i\u00e7in daha iyi, daha \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d seviyelerinin olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeli. Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi bu f\u0131rt\u0131nan\u0131n dinmesini beklemek, yak\u0131n gelecekte muhtemelen \u00e7ok daha g\u00fcvenli ve daha k\u00e2rl\u0131 giri\u015f noktalar\u0131 sunacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Brezilya reali se\u00e7im belirsizli\u011fi ve mali risklerle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda: TD Securities USD\/BRL\u2019de 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA sonras\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumunun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. 2014\u2019le %70 korelasyon, 2026H2 hedef 5,30; carry \u00f6nermiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t