G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam raporu, ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe Vali Christopher Waller\u2019\u0131n daha temkinli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirerek, piyasan\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeniden %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u00c7e\u015fitli enstr\u00fcmanlardan t\u00fcretilen mevcut denge n\u00f6tr faiz oran\u0131 tahmini %4\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerinde bulunuyor; bu da politika faizinin bu seviyenin yakla\u015f\u0131k 40-50 baz puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, oranlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k n\u00f6tr seviyeye getirirken, %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeki bir hamle politikay\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Anlat\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ayda iki ya da \u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor; ayr\u0131ca y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 2027\u2019ye uzanma ihtimaline dair bir referans i\u00e7eriyor. Enflasyonun baz etkilerinin de yard\u0131m\u0131yla gev\u015femesi ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flatmaya katk\u0131da bulunmas\u0131yla, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimleri \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Eyl\u00fcl Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha agresif bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Son g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan, piyasan\u0131n bu ay bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na bi\u00e7ti\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131k yeniden %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Fed\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda politika faizini tahmini %4\u2019l\u00fck n\u00f6tr seviyenin \u00fczerine itmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi nedeniyle, daha y\u00fcksek getiriler y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fimden faydalanmak i\u00e7in Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz t\u00fcrevlerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yak\u0131n vadeli SOFR kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almak, piyasan\u0131n iki ya da \u00fc\u00e7 ek art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamaya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla faizlerdeki anl\u0131k yukar\u0131 hareketi yakalayabilir. Tarihsel olarak 2022\u2019deki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc gibi h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlama evrelerinde, k\u0131sa vade getirileri birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde 100 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015f ve erken a\u00e7\u0131lan k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00f6d\u00fcllendirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, getiriler \u00fczerindeki yakla\u015fan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Politika faizi %4\u2019l\u00fck n\u00f6tr e\u015fi\u011fe yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a, daha uzun vadeli getiriler de daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 bir Fed\u2019i yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde muhtemelen yukar\u0131 ayarlanacakt\u0131r. Uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvili vekillerinin (proxy) duraasyonu h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 y\u0131l oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, terminal faiz beklentilerindeki 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir kayma bile bu tahvil fiyatlar\u0131nda h\u0131zla %7-%8\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadede temel strateji y\u00fckseli\u015fi i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik olsa da, gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken \u00e7evik kalmak gerekiyor. Daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar ekonomiyi so\u011futmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve enflasyon gev\u015fedi\u011finde, Fed muhtemelen duraklayacak ve nihayetinde faiz indirimine gidecektir. Bu politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131rken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, k\u0131sa pozisyonlardan receiver swap\u2019lara ve uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fe haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131 Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini yeniden %60+\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; n\u00f6tr faiz %4 \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Piyasa 2-3 art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor: k\u0131sa SOFR\u2019da short, uzun tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde put \u00f6neriliyor. Sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 indirim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t