Y\u00fckselen yen, ilk etapta bir kur hareketi olarak ba\u015flayabilir; ancak kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 carry i\u015flemlerinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ve yen fonlamas\u0131n\u0131n geri \u00f6denmesiyle daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir likidite s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na da s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir. Bu otomatik bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 de\u011fildir: faiz fark\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 carry lehine; ABD politika faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 seviyesindeyken Japonya\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 d\u00fczeyinde. Ancak zemin de\u011fi\u015fiyor; zira Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politikay\u0131 normalle\u015ftiriyor. Hisse senetlerinde ana aktar\u0131m kanal\u0131, fonlar\u0131n temel g\u00f6stergeler de\u011fi\u015fmese bile \u00f6nce en likit ve en \u00e7ok kazand\u0131ran pozisyonlar\u0131 satarak zorunlu kald\u0131ra\u00e7 azalt\u0131m\u0131na gitmesidir. Yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin daha geni\u015f bir ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na evrilmesi halinde, ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n getirileri de olumsuz etkilenebilir. ABD hisselerinde %10\u2019luk fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131, dolar\u0131n %5 de\u011fer kayb\u0131yla birle\u015fti\u011finde, euro baz\u0131nda getiri yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,5\u2019a iner.<\/p>\n\n
Be\u015f fay hatt\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: kalabal\u0131kla\u015fm\u0131\u015f yapay zek\u00e2 yar\u0131 iletkenleri ve bellek; pahal\u0131 yaz\u0131l\u0131m hisseleri ve momentum isimleri; \u00e7evrim etkileri ve rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcne duyarl\u0131 Japon ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131; Russell 2000 gibi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli hisseler ve kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rler; faiz hassasiyetine y\u00fcksek REIT\u2019ler ve ilgili hisseler.<\/p>\n\n
Yen de\u011ferlenmesinin y\u00fckselen volatiliteyle birlikte g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine, AUD\/JPY gibi carry \u00e7aprazlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na, yar\u0131 iletkenlerde piyasa geni\u015fli\u011finin bozulmas\u0131na, kredi spreadlerinin a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na, Asya\u2019dan yabanc\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na, daha genel bir dolar gerilemesine ve hisse d\u00fc\u015ferken uzun vadeli tahvil getirilerinin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na dikkat edin. A\u011fustos 2024\u2019te TOPIX bir seansta %12 gerilerken S&P 500 %3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; zorunlu sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yen rallisi, carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle likiditeyi s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p hisse sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. BoJ normalle\u015fmesi riski b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor: yapay zek\u00e2 yar\u0131 iletkenleri, pahal\u0131 yaz\u0131l\u0131m, Japon ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131, small-cap, REIT\u2019ler bask\u0131da; volatilite, credit spread izlenmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50188,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t