ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131 A\u011fustos\u2019ta toparland\u0131; 162 bin yeni istihdamla son be\u015f ay\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verisi kaydedilirken, Haziran ve Temmuz toplam\u0131 55 bin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. Temmuz\u2019un revize edilmi\u015f 21 bini, n\u00fcfus e\u011filimleriyle ili\u015fkilendirilen yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 binlik tempoya k\u0131yasla yine de zay\u0131f kal\u0131rken, i\u015fsizlik %4,1\u2019de sabit kald\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geriledi. Dolar\u0131n ilk tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu; piyasalar 11 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD enflasyonuna odakland\u0131 ve erken tahminler \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,4\u2019te kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 tek bir Fed ad\u0131m\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n seyrederken, CME FedWatch 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 olarak g\u00f6sterdi; 2026 sonuna ili\u015fkin beklentiler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmedi ve kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n %37\u2019si iki art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
GBPUSD veri sonras\u0131 gerilerken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta dikkat 1 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirisinin %5,25\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 19 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan tahvil piyasalar\u0131na da y\u00f6neldi. USDJPY, 2 ve 3 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan yen lehine destek spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; yak\u0131n vadede \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler \u00a5155 civar\u0131nda destek, \u00a5160 yak\u0131n\u0131nda muhtemel diren\u00e7 ve m\u00fcdahalenin teyit edilmesi halinde \u00a5152\u2019ye yak\u0131n \u015eubat diplerine do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olarak ifade edildi. CFD\u2019lerde hacimler 2 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren keskin bi\u00e7imde artarken, 4 Eyl\u00fcl verisini izleyen k\u00e2r realizasyonlar\u0131 sonras\u0131 s\u0131radaki odak noktas\u0131 11 Eyl\u00fcl enflasyon verisi oldu.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
Beklentileri a\u015fan 162 binlik tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin ard\u0131ndan, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 11 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki ABD enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Dolar\u0131n ilk tepkisi sakin kalsa da, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisi ve \u00f6nceki aylara ili\u015fkin 55 binlik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonlar ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in %60 civar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlayan CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
%3,4\u2019te kalmas\u0131 beklenen \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisi, dolar bazl\u0131 paritelerde bir sonraki ana belirleyici olacakt\u0131r. Brent petrol\u00fcn A\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana belirgin y\u00fckselmesiyle artan enerji maliyetlerini de hesaba katmak gerekiyor; bu kalem tarihsel olarak t\u00fcketici fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyicisi olabiliyor. Bu unsurlar \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirebilecek olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon s\u00fcrprizlerine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
GBP\/USD i\u00e7in, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) civar\u0131ndaki $1,356 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 ge\u00e7ici tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131n aranmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Sterlin, 1 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirilerinin %5,25\u2019in \u00fczerindeki yeni 19 y\u0131l zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n da g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u00fczere, Ekim sonundaki b\u00fct\u00e7e \u00f6ncesi tahvil piyasas\u0131 tedirginli\u011fiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yak\u0131n vadede 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA deste\u011finin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ler aras\u0131ndaki \u201cde\u011fer alan\u0131na\u201d do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY cephesinde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6viz krizlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen rekor 9,8 trilyon yen (62 milyar dolar) tutar\u0131ndaki savunma hamlelerine benzer yeni bir m\u00fcdahale ihtimalini tartarken, son derece temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini vurguluyoruz. \u015eahin bir BoJ\u2019un 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131rabilme ihtimali bulunsa da, parite \u015fu anda \u00a5155 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki kritik deste\u011fi test ediyor. Japon otoritelerinin \u015fimdilik kenarda kalmas\u0131 durumunda, \u00a5160 seviyesindeki yatay dirence do\u011fru kademeli bir toparlanma g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 162 binle 5 ay\u0131n zirvesinde, revizyonlar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; i\u015fsizlik %4,1. Dolar sakin, g\u00f6zler 11 Eyl\u00fcl T\u00dcFE\u2019de. FedWatch 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e %60 art\u0131\u015f; GBPUSD zay\u0131f, USDJPY \u00a5155 deste\u011finde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t