{"id":53756,"date":"2026-09-08T07:26:53","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T07:26:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/sp-500-7-611-pivot-seviyesi-ve-eylul-ayi-mevsimselligi-yaklasirken-bes-dalgali-zirveye-yaklasiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T07:26:53","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T07:26:53","slug":"sp-500-7-611-pivot-seviyesi-ve-eylul-ayi-mevsimselligi-yaklasirken-bes-dalgali-zirveye-yaklasiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/sp-500-7-611-pivot-seviyesi-ve-eylul-ayi-mevsimselligi-yaklasirken-bes-dalgali-zirveye-yaklasiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500, 7.611 Pivot Seviyesi ve Eyl\u00fcl Ay\u0131 Mevsimselli\u011fi Yakla\u015f\u0131rken Be\u015f Dalgali Zirveye Yakla\u015f\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

S&P 500 (SPX) i\u00e7in Elliott Dalga analizi, 9 Haziran dibinden ba\u015flayan d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn tamamlanmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve be\u015f dalgal\u0131 itki (impuls) dizisinin sona ermeye yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Saatlik grafikte takip edildi\u011fi \u00fczere dalga (i) 7579,93\u2019te zirve yaparken, dalga (ii) 7313,92\u2019ye geri \u00e7ekildi; endeks ard\u0131ndan dalga (iii) ile 7816,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Sonraki geri \u00e7ekilme dalga (iv) olarak etiketleniyor ve 7611,07\u2019de dip yapm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. 7816,7 \u00fczeri bir hareket ise ikili d\u00fczeltme (double correction) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici seviye 7611,07. Bu pivot korunursa, \u00e7er\u00e7eve dalga (v)\u2019in tamamlanmas\u0131 ve 9 Haziran dibinden gelen y\u00fckseli\u015fin bitirilmesi i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde bir uzama bekliyor; bunun ard\u0131ndan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck dereceli \u00fc\u00e7 dalgal\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Endeks 7611,07\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkarsa, yorum dalga (iv)\u2019\u00fcn ikili d\u00fczeltmeye evrilmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcne kayar; bu da ralli denemesinin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce daha fazla yatay\/oynak konsolidasyona i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n\n

Stratejik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Mevsimsellik Fakt\u00f6rleri<\/h3>\n\n

S&P 500\u2019\u00fc, 9 Haziran dibinden ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn son a\u015famalar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Endeksin \u015fu anda 7.611,07 seviyesindeki kritik pivot civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fime haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6ncesinde be\u015f dalgal\u0131 formasyonu tamamlamak i\u00e7in 7.816,7\u2019nin \u00fczerine son bir atak bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu olas\u0131 zirve, tarihsel mevsimsel zay\u0131fl\u0131klarla da \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; zira eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 endeks i\u00e7in \u201cy\u0131l\u0131n en zay\u0131f ay\u0131\u201d olarak biliniyor. 1928\u2019den bu yana tarihsel ortalamalara g\u00f6re S&P 500, eyl\u00fclde yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,2 gerilerken ay\u0131 yaln\u0131zca zaman\u0131n %44\u2019\u00fcnde art\u0131da kapatt\u0131. Bu g\u00f6rece g\u00fcvenilir mevsimsel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, daha derin bir \u00fc\u00e7 dalgal\u0131 d\u00fczeltici geri \u00e7ekilmenin yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentimizi destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n

Her \u0130ki Senaryo i\u00e7in Uygulanabilir \u0130\u015flem Planlar\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

Kalan yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, endeks 7.816,7\u2019nin \u00fczerine k\u0131rarsa bo\u011fa call spread gibi tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli (defined-risk) stratejilerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn olgunla\u015fm\u0131\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, zarar-kes seviyelerini s\u0131k\u0131 tutmak ve tahmini zirveye \u00e7ok yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak gerekir. Endekste zirvelerde yorgunluk i\u015faretleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr g\u00f6r\u00fclmez, yakla\u015fan d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131na veya covered call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na ge\u00e7ilmelidir.<\/p>\n

Alternatif olarak, S&P 500 7.611,07 pivotunun alt\u0131na k\u0131rarsa, uzayan bir konsolidasyon d\u00f6nemine derhal haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu senaryoda, ikili d\u00fczeltmenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu \u00fczerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in put almak veya ay\u0131 put spread (bear put spread) kurmak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. D\u00fczeltmelerin tipik olarak z\u0131mni volatiliteyi art\u0131rmas\u0131 nedeniyle, y\u00fckselen opsiyon primlerinden yararlanmak ad\u0131na kredi spread yaz\u0131m\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S&P 500\u2019de 9 Haziran dibinden ba\u015flayan 5 dalgal\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f finaline yakla\u015f\u0131yor: 7.611 pivotu \u00fcst\u00fcnde 7.816 \u00fczeri son atak, ard\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7 dalgal\u0131 d\u00fczeltme; alt\u0131ysa ikili d\u00fczeltme, yatay-oynak konsolidasyon. Eyl\u00fcl mevsimselli\u011fi zay\u0131f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50055,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t