USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k iki Yen gerileyerek alt\u0131 ay\u0131n en zay\u0131f seviyesini g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan 154,00 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. M\u00fcdahaleye dair bir teyit bulunmazken, AUD\/USD\u2019nin May\u0131s ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretmesi, geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir carry pozisyonu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine ili\u015fkin kan\u0131tlar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. ABD verileri ilk bak\u0131\u015fta Dolar\u2019\u0131 desteklemeliydi: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 53 binlik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 162 bin artt\u0131; i\u015fsizlik %4,1\u2019de sabit kald\u0131; 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl Federal Rezerv faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %49,4\u2019ten %58\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi Ocak 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen parite yeni bir alt\u0131 ay\u0131n dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 2 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 160,00\u2019\u0131n hemen \u00fczerindeki zirveden bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k alt\u0131 Yen geriledi; odak ise Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi Haziran\u2019dan bu yana %1 seviyesinde; ancak swaplar 18 Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir ad\u0131m\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %97 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlarken, Ekim i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte bir olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ABD faizleri %3,50-%3,75 band\u0131nda bulunuyor ve her iki taraf\u0131n da 25 baz puanl\u0131k ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 halinde bile faiz fark\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,6 puan d\u00fczeyinde kal\u0131yor. Japon tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseldi: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB faizi 1 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 1996\u2019dan bu yana ilk kez %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; iki y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri ise 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Piyasalar, %3,4\u2019\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,9 \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini; 92,3 milyar Yen a\u00e7\u0131k sonras\u0131 2,87 trilyon Yen cari fazla tahminini; ve GSYH\u2019nin %0,3\u2019ten %0,4 \u00e7\/\u00e7\u2019e y\u00fckselmesini izliyor. ABD\u2019de \u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda yatay seyrin ard\u0131ndan %0,4 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,7\u2019den %5,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenirken, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,1 sonras\u0131 %0,4; y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 ve \u00e7ekirde\u011fin %2,4 olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Teknik olarak diren\u00e7 154,50, 155,00, 156,00 seviyelerinde; 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 158,00 civar\u0131nda ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 159,50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda bulunuyor. Destek 154,00; ard\u0131ndan 153,50 ve 153,00\u2019te. Stoch RSI g\u00fcnl\u00fckte 82 ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7i yakla\u015f\u0131k 76 seviyesindeyken, 155,00 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin davran\u0131\u015f\u0131nda temel bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ve t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Yen\u2019de s\u00fcrebilecek g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Klasik faiz fark\u0131 i\u015flemi bozulmu\u015f durumda; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verilerinin Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %58\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131na ra\u011fmen paritenin 154,00\u2019a gerilemesi bunu do\u011fruluyor. Fiyatlamay\u0131 art\u0131k Japonya aya\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, Dolar almak yerine ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerde USD\/JPY\u2019yi sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde de\u011ferlendirmeye odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak, A\u011fustos 2024\u2019teki \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 Yen carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine bak\u0131labilir. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca 15 baz puanl\u0131k k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sars\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 tetiklemi\u015fti. O d\u00f6nemde USD\/JPY birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde 161,00 \u00fczerinden 141,00 civar\u0131na sert \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ferek, bu paritenin Tokyo\u2019nun politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerine ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Japon devlet tahvili getirisinin 1996\u2019dan bu yana ilk kez %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, i\u00e7eride s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131 onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli t\u00fcrev stratejilerimizde, 155,00 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015fleri k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7mak veya put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak i\u00e7in hedeflemeliyiz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI\u2019\u0131n 82 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131ma gelmeden \u00f6nce a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in alan\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. 154,00 deste\u011finin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; bu seviyenin net \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 153,00\u2019e kadar daha \u00f6nce test edilmemi\u015f bir alan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eoke eden sinyal: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verilerine ra\u011fmen USD\/JPY 154 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunuyor, alt\u0131 ay\u0131n dibinde. Piyasay\u0131 art\u0131k BoJ s\u00fcr\u00fckl\u00fcyor; Eyl\u00fcl 25 bp %97 fiyatlan\u0131rken y\u00fckseli\u015fler 155,00 alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f\/put f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50167,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t