USD\/CHF Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ABD Dolar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, genel Japon Yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi piyasaya y\u00f6n verdi. Parite, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 0,8110 zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekilerek 0,8091 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Di\u011fer tarafta USD\/JPY yakla\u015f\u0131k 154,40 ile alt\u0131 bu\u00e7uk ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilerken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 98,90 civar\u0131nda iki haftan\u0131n dip seviyesine yak\u0131n seyretti. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini besledi; Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verileriyle birlikte bu geli\u015fmeler, ABD \u00dcFE ve T\u00dcFE verileri ile Fed\u2019in 15-16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fcndemde tuttu.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131, Dolar\u2019daki zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan tam anlam\u0131yla faydalanmakta zorland\u0131; carry trade dinamikleri ve politika duru\u015flar\u0131 talebi \u015fekillendirdi. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerinin Yeni bir fonlama para birimi olarak cazibesini azaltmas\u0131yla, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) %0 politika faizi nedeniyle dikkatler Frang\u2019a kayd\u0131. Ancak SNB\u2019nin keskin de\u011ferlenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahaleye a\u00e7\u0131k duru\u015fu Frang\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi frenledi. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/CHF, 0,8091 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA yak\u0131n\u0131nda tutunurken; 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMAlar daha geni\u015f yap\u0131y\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. RSI 51 civar\u0131nda, MACD ise marjinal \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde pozitif kald\u0131. Diren\u00e7 0,8150 ve 0,8200 seviyelerinde; destek ise 0,8000 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 0,7935 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF, 0,8091\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA etraf\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 bir konsolidasyon sergilerken, t\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n volatilitede geni\u015flemeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak USD\/CHF bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite %6,5 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; ancak kritik ABD enflasyon verileri ve Fed toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki g\u00fcnlerde genellikle 1,5 ila 2 puan art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steriyor. Bu hafta ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verileri, Eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131ndaki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131 iki y\u00f6nden birinde sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmada getiri elde etmemizi sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, Federal Rezerv ile \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bull call spread stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde desteklenirken SNB %0 politika faizini koruyor. Bu belirgin z\u0131tl\u0131k, Frang\u2019\u0131 carry trade i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131ca fonlama para birimlerinden biri haline getiriyor; bu da k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar getiri aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girdi\u011finde tarihsel olarak Frang\u2019\u0131n yukar\u0131 potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskimizi y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, psikolojik 0,8000 seviyesinin 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde desteklendi\u011fini not etmeliyiz. Ayr\u0131ca, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte 700 milyar CHF\u2019yi a\u015fan d\u00f6viz rezervleriyle desteklenen SNB\u2019nin kur m\u00fcdahalesine ili\u015fkin aktif duru\u015fu, 0,7935\u2019in alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. 0,7950 seviyesinde veya alt\u0131nda, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak prim geliri daha g\u00fcvenli \u015fekilde toplanabilir; SNB\u2019nin z\u0131mni taban\u0131 ise bir t\u00fcr kalkan i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar zay\u0131flarken USD\/CHF 0,8091\u2019de 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamada s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi, petrol ve ABD T\u00dcFE-\u00dcFE ile Fed \u00f6ncesi volatilite artabilir. Straddle\/strangle, bull spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. SNB taban\u0131 0,7935.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t