{"id":53736,"date":"2026-09-07T21:27:10","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T21:27:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/td-kanada-merkez-bankasi-sahin-bir-molaya-girdi-faizlerin-2027ye-kadar-sabit-tutulmasini-ve-notr-faiz-oranina-dogru-artislari-ongoruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-09-07T21:27:10","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T21:27:10","slug":"td-kanada-merkez-bankasi-sahin-bir-molaya-girdi-faizlerin-2027ye-kadar-sabit-tutulmasini-ve-notr-faiz-oranina-dogru-artislari-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-kanada-merkez-bankasi-sahin-bir-molaya-girdi-faizlerin-2027ye-kadar-sabit-tutulmasini-ve-notr-faiz-oranina-dogru-artislari-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD: Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u015fahin bir molaya girdi, faizlerin 2027\u2019ye kadar sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve n\u00f6tr faiz oran\u0131na do\u011fru art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD Securities, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) son karar\u0131nda daha \u015fahin bir tona ge\u00e7ti\u011fini, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon bask\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f kalmaya devam ederken enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verdi\u011fini belirtti. Ekonomistler, Gecelik Faiz Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2026 boyunca %2,25\u2019te kalmas\u0131n\u0131; ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019de Ocak ve Mart aylar\u0131na yaz\u0131lan iki\u015fer 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla, varsay\u0131lan n\u00f6tr seviye olan %2,75\u2019e d\u00f6nmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Notta, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 100 dolar\/varil seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde normalize oldu\u011fu, bunun da enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ek bir \u015fok olarak de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi ifade edildi. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin Banka\u2019n\u0131n %1\u2013%3 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi kaydedildi. Raporda ayr\u0131ca 22 A\u011fustos\u2019ta devreye al\u0131nan 338. B\u00f6l\u00fcm tarifeleriyle ticaret gerilimlerinde t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131; ancak ek bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f olmamas\u0131 halinde, mevcut varsay\u0131mlar alt\u0131nda bu \u00f6nlemlerin 2027 1. \u00e7eyrekte faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 engellemeyece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015eahin Aras\u0131 Ortam\u0131nda T\u00fcrev Stratejisi<\/h3>\n

Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin bir ton benimsemesiyle, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda %2,25\u2019te uzayan bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d d\u00f6nemine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131rken enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, yak\u0131n vadeli faiz indirimi pozisyonlar\u0131 almak y\u00fcksek risk ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda politika faizlerinin yatay kalmas\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in Kanada Gecelik Repo Oran\u0131 Ortalamas\u0131 (CORRA) vadeli i\u015flemlerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

2027 Faiz Art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na Pozisyonlanma ve Enflasyona Duyarl\u0131 \u0130\u015flem Fikirleri<\/h3>\n

\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak piyasan\u0131n, 2027 Ocak ve Mart aylar\u0131na planlanan 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. %2,75\u2019lik n\u00f6tr orana do\u011fru beklenen y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak amac\u0131yla pay-fixed (sabit \u00f6de) gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131na (OIS) girilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, piyasa merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin takvimiyle tam hizaland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerin (front-end) tipik olarak h\u0131zla y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Man\u015fet enflasyon h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %1\u2013%3 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n seyrediyor; bunda petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki 100 dolar\/varilin \u00fczerini g\u00f6ren son s\u0131\u00e7rama ve 22 A\u011fustos\u2019ta y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe giren 338. B\u00f6l\u00fcm tarifeleri etkili. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n sab\u0131rl\u0131 duru\u015fu k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu a\u015famada abart\u0131l\u0131 fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasan\u0131n politika faizinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde \u201cbeklemede\u201d oldu\u011funu fark etmesiyle prim toplamak \u00fczere, k\u0131sa vadeli CAD swaption\u2019larda sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BoC \u015fahinle\u015fti: 2026\u2019da %2,25\u2019te bekle-g\u00f6r, 2027\u2019de iki 25 bp art\u0131\u015fla %2,75! Petrol \u015foku s\u00f6nse de T\u00dcFE \u00fcst bantta; CORRA yatay, OIS fixed-\u00f6de, k\u0131sa vadeli CAD swaption sat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t