Deutsche Bank, 2026\u2019ya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH\u2019sinin temmuz ay\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u015fekilde gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Banka, hizmetler ve \u00fcretimdeki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n etkisiyle ayl\u0131k bazda m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir daralma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, in\u015faat taraf\u0131n\u0131n ise hafif art\u0131da kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Banka bu hareketi, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00fcc\u00fc takiben k\u0131sa vadeli bir d\u00fczeltme olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor; son anket g\u00f6stergelerinin olumlu seyrine i\u015faret ederek genel aktivite temposunu \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye kay\u0131\u015f\u201dtan ziyade \u201cistikrarl\u0131\u201d olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Merkez senaryoda, temmuz ay\u0131nda GSYH\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 d\u00fc\u015fmesi; hizmetlerin ayl\u0131k %0,1 ve \u00fcretimin ayl\u0131k %0,3 gerilemesi bekleniyor. Deutsche Bank, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve \u201cs\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez\u201d olarak nitelendirdi\u011fi y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %2\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelen bu tabloyu do\u011fal bir ayarlama olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak banka, ivmenin bant i\u00e7inde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %1,1 ve 2027 tahminini %1,3 seviyesinde koruyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde daha y\u00fcksek verimlilik ve yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n destekleyici olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, enerji \u015fokunun ard\u0131ndan baz\u0131 alanlarda \u201cyakalama y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltme\u201dnin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
11 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak resmi veri \u00f6ncesinde, temmuz ay\u0131 i\u00e7in Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH\u2019sinde ayl\u0131k %0,1\u2019lik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir daralma; hizmetler ve sanayi \u00fcretiminde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler kaynakl\u0131 bir zay\u0131flama bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, piyasan\u0131n bu k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli molay\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla birlikte \u0130ngiliz Sterlini (GBP) ve FTSE endeks vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir. Bu ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla GBP\/USD\u2019de yak\u0131n vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu temmuz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ra\u011fmen, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisi sa\u011flam bir patikada kalmaya devam ediyor; y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performansla 1\u00c7 GSYH\u2019nin %0,7 gibi kuvvetli bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi bunu destekliyor. Bu ge\u00e7ici yava\u015flaman\u0131n, geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir bozulman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan ziyade, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %2\u2019lik tempoya kar\u015f\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltme oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz indirimlerinde temkinli ve istikrarl\u0131 bir duru\u015f sergileyece\u011fi beklentisinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in SONIA faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Verimlilik ve yapay zek\u00e2 odakl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc 2027\u2019de %1,3\u2019e do\u011fru desteklemeye ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a, geri \u00e7ekilmelerde Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k hisse endekslerinde uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, k\u0131sa vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015feleri da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve yap\u0131sal verimlilik kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na yans\u0131maya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k piyasalar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanma e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kur veya hisse taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek olas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, orta vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejiler i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir giri\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Deutsche Bank\u2019tan dikkat \u00e7eken UK GSYH uyar\u0131s\u0131: Temmuz\u2019da ayl\u0131k %0,1 daralma bekleniyor. Hizmet ve \u00fcretim zay\u0131f, in\u015faat art\u0131da. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u201cistikrarl\u0131\u201d; 2026 %1,1, 2027 %1,3. GBP\/FTSE bask\u0131, put\/SONIA \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50018,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t