TD Securities, a\u011fustos \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,19 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,3 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bankaya g\u00f6re art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 hizmet kalemi sa\u011flayacak; \u00e7ekirdek mal fiyatlar\u0131 ise ay genelinde hafif negatif bekleniyor. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve g\u0131da enflasyonunda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin etkisiyle ayl\u0131k %0,37 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, giyim ve ev e\u015fyas\u0131 gibi tarifelere maruz \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde sert fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n tahminine yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olu\u015fturdu\u011funu vurguluyor. Ayr\u0131ca, BEA revizyonlar\u0131n\u0131n PCE\u2019ye ilk kez yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 aya i\u015faret ederek bunun y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,2 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesini bekliyor; ge\u00e7en haftaki ISM\u2019lerde kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 yorumlar\u0131n\u0131 da enflasyon risklerinin h\u00e2len masada oldu\u011funa dair kan\u0131t olarak g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ay kritik enflasyon verilerine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemciler faiz ve hisse senedi opsiyonlar\u0131nda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131. Tahminler, y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,3 ile \u201cso\u011fuk\u201d bir \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ile y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 ile daha \u201cs\u0131cak\u201d bir man\u015fet T\u00dcFE aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015fmaya i\u015faret etti\u011finden, piyasa beklentilerinin h\u0131zla dalgalanmas\u0131 muhtemel. 11 Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak resmi verinin yarataca\u011f\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Sabit getirili tarafta, man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek veriler aras\u0131ndaki yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlamalar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek amac\u0131yla Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerine odaklan\u0131lmal\u0131. Mevcut CME FedWatch verileri, yakla\u015fan Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz ayarlamas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u00c7ekirdek endeks ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda \u201c\u00e7apal\u0131\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi ani bir piyasa sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlarda \u00f6nemli bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak, son ISM imalat verilerinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 giyim ve ev e\u015fyas\u0131 gibi tarifelere maruz \u00fcr\u00fcnlerden kaynaklanan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler de hesaba kat\u0131lmal\u0131. T\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 perakende hisseleri opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki z\u0131mni volatilite, yakla\u015fan tedarik zinciri kaynakl\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na k\u0131yasla h\u00e2len d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlan\u0131yor. Emtia kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerinde ani bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in volatilite endekslerinde para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi piyasada kritik ayr\u0131\u015fma: TD Securities \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019yi %2,3, man\u015feti %3,4 bekliyor. Hizmetler s\u00fcr\u00fcklerken enerji y\u00fckseli\u015fi risk yarat\u0131yor; SPY straddle, SOFR ve VIX call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t