Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na bir miktar destek vererek dolar endeksini k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine yukar\u0131 itti; ancak daha zay\u0131f \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve Federal Rezerv taraf\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlama, bu haftaki T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesinde hareketin devam\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlad\u0131. Verinin ard\u0131ndan Fed beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131k %55\u2019ten yakla\u015f\u0131k %65\u2019e y\u00fckseldi, ard\u0131ndan yeniden %62 civar\u0131na do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi. Piyasalar art\u0131k y\u00f6n i\u00e7in enflasyona bak\u0131yor: T\u00dcFE\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc canland\u0131rabilirken, daha yumu\u015fak bir okuma i\u015flemleri dalgal\u0131 tutabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Grafik taraf\u0131nda DXY en son 99,20 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck zaman diliminde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumu korunuyor; RSI ise yatay. Diren\u00e7 99,40\u2019ta; bu seviye 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO (21DMA) ve %38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesine denk geliyor. Bir sonraki bariyer ise 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck HO\u2019ya (100DMA) yak\u0131n 99,75\u2019te. Destek 98,60\u201398,70 band\u0131nda izleniyor; bu b\u00f6lge 2026 dipten tepeye hareketin %50 Fibonacci geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Sonraki destek ise %61,8 Fibonacci seviyesine denk gelen 98,00.<\/p>\n\n
Son istihdam verilerinin ard\u0131ndan 99,20 seviyesinde gezinirken ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) yak\u0131ndan izlememiz gerekiyor. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde diren\u00e7li kalmaya devam etse de, daha yava\u015f \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m yapmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde fren g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu da, ani bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 kovalamaktansa k\u0131sa vadede bant i\u00e7i seyre haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasada bu ay Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %65\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131ktan sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k %62\u2019ye geriledi. Bu durum, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici olacak yakla\u015fan T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisine t\u00fcm dikkati \u00e7eviriyor. Tarihsel olarak, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde faiz olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 bu \u201corta bantta\u201d seyrederken, veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla DXY volatilitesi %1,2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterebiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, bu T\u00dcFE verisiyle beklenen fiyat geni\u015flemesini yakalamak amac\u0131yla straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejilerini kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz, DXY\u2019yi 99,40\u2019taki yak\u0131n direncin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak 99,75\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 hedefleyebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir enflasyon verisi endeksi 98,60\u201398,70 aras\u0131ndaki kritik destek b\u00f6lgesine \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Yatay seyreden G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) n\u00f6tr momentuma i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle, enflasyon verisi gelene kadar iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bant i\u015flemleri tercih edilmeli. \u00d6zellikle 98,00 seviyesinde daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da sa\u011flam bir destek bulundu\u011fu i\u00e7in, s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri burada kritik. Bu teknik s\u0131n\u0131rlar etraf\u0131nda riskin y\u00f6netilmesi, veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 ani ters hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi kritik e\u015fik: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam DXY\u2019yi 99,20\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; zay\u0131f \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %62. Diren\u00e7 99,40\/99,75; destek 98,60-98,00. Opsiyonda straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t