Brent ham petrol, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda ticari gemicili\u011fe y\u00f6nelik ABD-\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcreli kesinti endi\u015felerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 97 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kontrat, hafta sonu ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesinin ard\u0131ndan toparlanmadan \u00f6nce g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 93 dolara kadar gerilemi\u015fti. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Witkoff ve Kushner\u2019\u0131n da yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nceki bar\u0131\u015f \u00f6nerilerini canland\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefleyen Moskova ve Kiev temaslar\u0131 hafta sonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ancak bir ilerleme sa\u011flanamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Habere g\u00f6re OPEC+, Ekim ay\u0131 i\u00e7in petrol \u00fcretim politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Reuters kaynaklar\u0131, grubun 2027 kota baz seviyelerini g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irirken 4. \u00e7eyrekte ilave \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara vermesinin muhtemel oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 aksatmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle OPEC+\u2019\u0131n fiili arz ve fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki y\u00f6nlendirme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 nedeniyle Brent\u2019in varil ba\u015f\u0131na 97 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasa volatilitesinin ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu keskin fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi \u201cuzun volatilite\u201d stratejilerine \u00f6ncelik vermeli. Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen ve g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli aksamalarda, ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite s\u0131kl\u0131kla %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n
Diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin aniden ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fmas\u0131 halinde prim riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cbull call spread\u201d stratejileri olu\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, OPEC+\u2019\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara verme karar\u0131yla k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel yedek kapasitenin g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 milyon varil gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede tahmin edilmesi, ilave bir kesintinin Brent\u2019i kolayl\u0131kla 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Takvim spread\u2019i i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in, derinle\u015fen backwardation\u2019dan yararlanmak amac\u0131yla yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlarda uzun pozisyonda kal\u0131p daha vadeli kontratlara g\u00f6re avantajl\u0131 konumlanmay\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu strateji, fiziki piyasadaki anl\u0131k panikten ve al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n acil teslimatlar\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in yar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalan\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, b\u00f6lgede ani bir gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli sigorta olarak \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de ABD-\u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 Brent\u2019i 97 dolara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131, kesinti korkusu b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. OPEC+ Ekim\u2019de politikay\u0131 korudu. Volatilite y\u00fcksek: straddle\/strangle, bull call spread, backwardation\u2019a takvim spread; OTM put sigorta \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49959,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53720","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t