Almanya\u2019n\u0131n mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f, i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fc etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretimi temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,6 geriledi; \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %0,1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan y\u00f6n tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu veri, bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemin neredeyse yatay seyrinden sonra y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fcretim performans\u0131nda yeniden bozulmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Temmuz verisi, \u00f6nceki okuman\u0131n \u00fczerine daha geni\u015f bir daralmaya i\u015faret ederken, sanayi \u00fcretimini y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda negatif b\u00f6lgede daha da derine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. B\u00fclten kapsam\u0131nda ilave bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Almanya\u2019da sanayi \u00fcretiminin temmuzda -%1,6\u2019ya sert d\u00fc\u015fmesi, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik lokomotifinin imalat resesyonuna daha da g\u00f6m\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu zay\u0131f verinin, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (ECB) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha agresif faiz indirimlerini de\u011ferlendirmeye zorlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu makro zay\u0131fl\u0131k, d\u00f6viz ve sabit getirili piyasalarda anl\u0131k f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ortak para birimini bask\u0131lamas\u0131 nedeniyle EUR\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyonlara veya sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, Alman sanayi \u00fcretimi beklentilerin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131na indi\u011finde Euro, takip eden ay i\u00e7inde Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetme e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. Mevcut t\u00fcrev fiyatlamalar\u0131 EUR\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunmaya talebin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu da d\u00f6viz put\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda, DAX endeksinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar ya da b\u00fcy\u00fck Alman sanayi ve otomotiv hisselerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri ve zay\u0131f k\u00fcresel talep nedeniyle son bir y\u0131lda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fad\u0131. \u015eirket k\u00e2r tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilirken oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 beklenir; bu da piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan yararlanmak isteyen opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giri\u015f noktalar\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, devlet tahvili piyasas\u0131nda Alman Bund vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a, son d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,2 seviyesinde seyreden Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin %2,0 band\u0131na do\u011fru gerileme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek. Bund\u2019larda uzun pozisyon almak, k\u0131ta genelinde makro endi\u015felerin artmas\u0131yla g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f temas\u0131ndan faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alarm zilleri: Almanya sanayi \u00fcretimi temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, daralma derinle\u015fti. ECB\u2019de daha agresif faiz indirimi beklentisi art\u0131yor; taktik olarak EUR\/USD ve DAX\u2019ta k\u0131sa\/put, Bund\u2019da al\u0131m \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t