Rupi haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda dolara kar\u015f\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; USD\/INR, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan 94,38\u2019e do\u011fru geriledi. Rezervlerdeki art\u0131\u015fta, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) \u00f6zel yabanc\u0131 mevduat penceresine yerle\u015fik olmayanlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 etkili oldu. MUFG, RBI\u2019nin FCNR(B) d\u00f6viz (FX) \u00f6nlemlerinden kaynaklanan dolar giri\u015flerinin 31 A\u011fustos itibar\u0131yla toplamda 130 milyar ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; bu zemin, kurda ani zay\u0131flama risklerine ili\u015fkin kuyruk risklerini azaltmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
Petrol ise dengeleyici bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerilimlerin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131, rupiyi bask\u0131layan tarafta yer ald\u0131. MCX 21 Eyl\u00fcl vadeli ham petrol kontrat\u0131 %1,75 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.730 rupi seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, 8.791 rupilik \u00fc\u00e7 aydan uzun s\u00fcrenin zirvesine yak\u0131n. Piyasalar\u0131n dikkati, A\u011fustos ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne \u00e7evrildi. Zira A\u011fustos tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 56 binlik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 162 bin gelirken, Temmuz verisi -23 binden 21 bine revize edildi; CME FedWatch, gelecek hafta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %58 olarak fiyatlad\u0131. Grafiklerde USD\/INR 94,49 seviyesinde ve 95,15\u2019teki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bulunuyor; destek Haziran dip seviyesi 94,15\u2019te, diren\u00e7 ise yeniden 95,15 civar\u0131nda. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI\u2019\u0131n 40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma i\u015faret ederken, hareketin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi de de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/INR paritesi, 95,15\u2019teki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece teknik olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011filimli oldu\u011fundan, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 94,15\u2019teki yak\u0131n vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc deste\u011fe odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bununla birlikte, kur h\u0131zla a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan agresif k\u0131sa pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak gerekir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran gerilimindeki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f nedeniyle MCX Ham Petrol\u2019\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.730 rupi ile \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n seyretmesi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015fi de hesaba katmay\u0131 gerektiriyor. Tarihsel olarak Hindistan ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %80\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor; bu da uzayan bir enerji arz \u015fokunun ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bi\u00e7imde rupiye bask\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, olas\u0131 ani trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla uzun USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD T\u00dcFE verisi ve gelecek haftaki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde d\u00f6viz volatilitesinin artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasalar, A\u011fustos\u2019taki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 162 binlik istihdam verisinin ard\u0131ndan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %58 olarak fiyatlarken, straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Bu strateji, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131cak enflasyonla y\u00fckselmesi ya da g\u00fcvercin bir s\u00fcrprizle d\u00fc\u015fmesi durumunda, her iki y\u00f6nde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan kazan\u00e7 elde etmeye imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupide s\u00fcrpriz g\u00fc\u00e7lenme: rezerv art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve RBI\u2019nin FCNR(B) dolar giri\u015fleri USD\/INR\u2019yi 94,38\u2019e \u00e7ekti. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol\u00fc t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de; 94,15 destek, 95,15 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t