USD\/CAD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde \u00f6nceki g\u00fcndeki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,3830 civar\u0131nda fazla de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi. Ancak artan ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir ihracat\u00e7\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 CAD\u2019e destek sa\u011flayabilir. WTI, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90,00 dolara do\u011fru toparland\u0131; ABD\u2019nin, Amerikan sava\u015f gemilerine y\u00f6nelik f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7 \u0130ran tankerini hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, Tahran\u2019\u0131n ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde yeni bir k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 b\u00f6lge ilan etti\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n
S\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi istihdam verileri dikkati g\u00f6reli b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesine \u00e7evirdi: ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) A\u011fustos\u2019ta beklenti olan 56 binin \u00fczerinde 162 bin artt\u0131; \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 ise %4,1\u2019de sabit kald\u0131. CME FedWatch arac\u0131, USD ABD T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde zay\u0131f seyrini korusa da, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %58,3 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7ti. Grafik taraf\u0131nda parite 9 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (EMA) alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, 1,3845 ve 1,3931 seviyeleri diren\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI\u2019\u0131n 43 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin, USD\/CAD paritesinde artmas\u0131 muhtemel volatiliteye straddle veya bear put spread gibi k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon stratejileriyle haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Spot fiyat\u0131n 1,3830 civar\u0131nda, 1,3845\u2019te bulunan 9 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) direncinin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, piyasada k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131\u015fman\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gibi jeopolitik darbo\u011fazlar nedeniyle West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn 90 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru sert y\u00fckseli\u015fler sergilemesi, emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019na belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme kazand\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bu emtia kaynakl\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fc ayr\u0131\u015fan makro verilerle dengelemek gerekiyor: ABD\u2019nin A\u011fustos\u2019ta beklentileri a\u015farak 162 bin istihdam eklemesine kar\u015f\u0131n Kanada\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Bu fark, CME FedWatch arac\u0131n\u0131n bu ay i\u00e7in bir Federal Rezerv faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %58,3\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131na neden olurken, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 da destekliyor. Bu gerilimden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse olu\u015fabilecek ani geri \u00e7ekilmeleri yakalamak amac\u0131yla USD\/CAD\u2019de yak\u0131n vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel veriler, b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ge\u00e7i\u015f koridorlar\u0131ndaki jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n, Kanada Dolar\u0131 gibi enerjiye duyarl\u0131 para birimlerinde ima edilen volatilitede (implied volatility) genellikle %10 ila %15\u2019lik bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tetikledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 43 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede bulunmas\u0131, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmeden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin sessizce g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini teyit ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev yap\u0131lar\u0131n ge\u00e7ersiz say\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 net bir seviye olarak 1,3931 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski petrol\u00fc 90 dolara ta\u015f\u0131rken USD\/CAD 1,3830\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: CAD petrolle destek bulsa da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD NFP ve %58,3 Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. EMA diren\u00e7leri 1,3845\/1,3931; volatilite i\u00e7in straddle\/bear put \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53704","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t