Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerinin daha s\u0131k\u0131 Fed politikas\u0131 beklentilerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.395 dolara geriledi. A\u011fustos tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 162 bin artarken, bu Temmuz ay\u0131ndaki 21 binlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 izledi ve 56 binlik piyasa beklentisini a\u015farak faiz getirisi olmayan k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerdeki yaz\u0131-tura seviyesinden yakla\u015f\u0131k %58,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 ise y\u00f6n tayini i\u00e7in bu haftaki \u00dcFE (PPI) ve T\u00dcFE (CPI) verilerine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden izinsiz bir rota kullanarak \u00fc\u00e7 petrol tankerini ve bunun yan\u0131nda baz\u0131 ABD ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 gemileri hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberi sonras\u0131 jeopolitik risk de g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu durum petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyona ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Ayr\u0131 bir de\u011ferlendirmede Commerzbank, Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de olas\u0131 bir hamleye y\u00f6nelik \u015f\u00fcphelerin artmas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki son y\u00fckseli\u015fi yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Teknik tarafta metal 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, 4.465 ve 4.675 dolar seviyeleri diren\u00e7; 4.405, 4.350 ve 4.260 dolar seviyeleri ise destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 51 seviyesinde seyretti.<\/p>\n
Son derece oynak bir i\u015flem penceresine girerken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde temkinli, k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir duru\u015f benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 162 binlik tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) raporunun ard\u0131ndan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %58,3\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesiyle, faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar \u00fczerindeki anl\u0131k bask\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. Tarihsel olarak, 2022\u2019deki agresif Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 alt\u0131 ayda %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinde gerilemi\u015fti; bu da metalin para politikas\u0131ndaki ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verileri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kat\u0131 bir y\u00f6nsel beklentiye girmeden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz sert fiyat hareketlerini yakalamak i\u00e7in opsiyonlarda straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Makro yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131yla birlikte enflasyonun y\u00fckselip y\u00fckselmedi\u011fini de\u011ferlendirirken, ima edilen volatilitenin s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 muhtemel. Enflasyon verileri beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelirse, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.350 dolardaki yak\u0131n deste\u011finin alt\u0131na h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde sarkmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik risklerin k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131na ani g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131 ba\u015flatabilece\u011fi ihtimali g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Bu riske kar\u015f\u0131 hedge amac\u0131yla, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 4.465 dolardaki diren\u00e7 seviyesine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 koruyabilir. Bu dengeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerinin aniden k\u0131sa pozisyon kapama kaynakl\u0131 bir alt\u0131n rallisini tetiklemesi halinde koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde izlenecek kritik pivot, 4.350 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) seviyesidir. 4.465 dolardaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bollinger orta band\u0131na do\u011fru ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. 4.350 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, 4.260 dolardaki destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilmenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik hafta: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131 Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisini art\u0131rd\u0131, XAU\/USD 4.395\u2019e \u00e7ekildi. FedWatch %58,3. G\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE\u2019de; destek 4.350, risk H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131. Straddle\/hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t