WTI, \u00f6nceki seanstaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7erek pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90,00 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeniden alevlenen askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu enerji arz\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 kesinti endi\u015felerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla y\u00fckseldi. Hafta sonu ABD, ABD Donanmas\u0131 sava\u015f gemilerine y\u00f6nelik balistik f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na yan\u0131t olarak \u00fc\u00e7 \u0130ran petrol tankerini vurdu. Bunun ard\u0131ndan Tahran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne uzanan ve ABD Donanmas\u0131 ablukas\u0131 hatt\u0131n\u0131 da kapsayan yeni bir k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 b\u00f6lge ilan etti.<\/p>\n
ABD Enerji Bakan\u0131 Chris Wright, ABD ordusunun b\u00f6lgede deniz varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini; operasyonlar\u0131n \u0130ran petrol ihracat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 uygulamaya odaklan\u0131rken, Bo\u011faz\u2019dan ge\u00e7en ticari gemicili\u011fi korumay\u0131 hedefleyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 sevkiyat verileri ise fiziki piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti: Kpler takibine g\u00f6re H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7en trafik g\u00fcnl\u00fck 10 gemiyle \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k dip seviyeye gerilerken, ABD Donanmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 artan refakat faaliyetlerine dikkat \u00e7ekti. Bu tablo, y\u00fcksek jeopolitik risk priminin deste\u011fiyle ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131da tutuyor. Commerzbank, g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fe vurgu yaparak, bu hafta yay\u0131mlanacak enerji ajans\u0131 raporlar\u0131 ile \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi verilerini olas\u0131 netle\u015fme kaynaklar\u0131 olarak i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019\u0131n kritik 90,00 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesini test etti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015flerin g\u00fcnl\u00fck yaln\u0131zca 10 gemiye d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle, fiziki arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k sadece bir tehdit de\u011fil, somut bir ger\u00e7eklik. Ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamaya imk\u00e2n veren yak\u0131n vadeli WTI al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki uzun s\u00fcreli aksakl\u0131klar, Cboe Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index\u2019i (OVX) 40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolara olas\u0131 bir ko\u015fuya kar\u015f\u0131 korunma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla opsiyon i\u015flem hacminde \u015fimdiden art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u00fckseli\u015f call spread\u2019leri (bull call spreads) uygulamak, \u015fi\u015fen ima edilen volatilite nedeniyle a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 prim \u00f6demeden artan primlerden yararlanmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Resmi deniz g\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00fcvenceleri ile Kpler\u2019\u0131n ger\u00e7ek zamanl\u0131 sevkiyat verileri aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Bu fark, daha geni\u015f piyasan\u0131n Basra K\u00f6rfezi ablukas\u0131n\u0131n ciddiyetini hen\u00fcz tam olarak fiyatlamam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yak\u0131n vadeli fiziki varillerin k\u0131tla\u015fmas\u0131yla \u00f6n ay kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek primle i\u015flem g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle uzun vadeli i\u015flem (futures) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 veya takvim spread\u2019lerini (calendar spreads) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, hafta i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi verileri ile k\u00fcresel enerji ajanslar\u0131n\u0131n raporlar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. \u00c7in\u2019in ham petrol ithalat verileri, y\u00fcksek fiyatlara ra\u011fmen diren\u00e7li seyrederse, bu rallinin s\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in gerekli temel talep deste\u011fini sa\u011flayabilir. Olas\u0131 bir diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n ya da t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir askeri hamlenin sert fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyece\u011fi dikkate al\u0131narak, zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyelerinin s\u0131k\u0131 tutulmas\u0131 ve \u00e7evik kal\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde tansiyon y\u00fckseliyor: WTI 90 dolar\u0131 test ediyor. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz trafi\u011finin 10 gemiye d\u00fc\u015fmesi arz kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; opsiyon\/futures stratejileriyle volatiliteye haz\u0131rlan\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t