GBP\/USD, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3520 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi; ABD Dolar\u0131, bu haftaki enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesinde zay\u0131flad\u0131. Goldman Sachs\u2019\u0131n notunda, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) sonucunun, ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu (BLS) verilerinin Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u0131n (NFP) A\u011fustos\u2019ta 162 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (beklenti: 56 bin; Temmuz: 21 bin yukar\u0131 revize) ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,1\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesine ra\u011fmen, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015funu korumas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 ise g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, istihdam raporu \u00f6ncesindeki %50,2\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k %58,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta piyasalar, y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve Mart 2027\u2019ye kadar bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor; bu durum mali s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik ile yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyona ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri yans\u0131t\u0131yor. K\u00f6keni 886 y\u0131l\u0131na uzanan Sterlin, 2022 verilerine g\u00f6re g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 630 milyar dolarla k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz (FX) i\u015flem hacminin %12\u2019sini olu\u015fturuyor; GBP\/USD FX\u2019in %11\u2019ini temsil ederken, GBP\/JPY %3 ve EUR\/GBP %2 paya sahip. BoE, ana arac\u0131 olarak faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak enflasyonu yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 seviyesinde tutmay\u0131 hedefliyor; ayr\u0131ca GSYH, \u0130malat ve Hizmet PMI\u2019lar\u0131, istihdam ve D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Dengesi de para birimini etkiliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, halihaz\u0131rda 1,3520 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren GBP\/USD paritesinde bu haftan\u0131n kritik ABD enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Il\u0131ml\u0131 bir T\u00dcFE beklentisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan sert hareketleri yakalamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle al\u0131mlar\u0131 etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Tarihsel olarak ABD T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u201cCable\u201dda ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 piplik dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131; bu da opsiyon bazl\u0131 oynakl\u0131k stratejilerini \u015fu anda olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada zorlan\u0131yor olsa da, 162 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc A\u011fustos istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %58,3\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon verisinin dolarda ani bir ralliye yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in USD\u2019de bull put spread kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 veya GBP\/USD\u2019de koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, tarihsel e\u011filimlerin de g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u00fczere Fed\u2019in ani bir \u015fahinle\u015fme d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn Sterlin kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla silmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 i\u015flem portf\u00f6ylerini korur.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere taraf\u0131nda ise, piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve Mart 2027\u2019ye kadar bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha tamamen fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fahin bir BoE senaryosunu dikkate almak gerekiyor. Ba\u015f Ekonomist Huw Pill\u2019in destekleyici yorumlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta kamu borcunun GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n %100\u2019e yak\u0131n seyretmesi uzun vadeli mali s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, Fed ile BoE\u2019nin orta vadeli para politikalar\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n uzun vadeli calendar spread stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dikkat: GBP\/USD 1,3520\u2019de! Dolar, T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi zay\u0131f; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc NFP\u2019ye ra\u011fmen Fed bekle-g\u00f6r. Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %58,3. Oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in straddle\/strangle, \u015fok enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 koruyucu put \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t