EUR\/USD, ABD piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Bayram\u0131 (Labour Day) nedeniyle kapal\u0131 oldu\u011fu Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselerek 1,1615 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve 1,1600 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutundu. Hareket, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen ABD A\u011fustos istihdam verisinin eurodaki ilave y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam 162 bin artarken, Temmuz verisi 21 bine yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi ve 56 binlik beklentinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 %4,1 ile de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Verinin ard\u0131ndan CME FedWatch\u2019e g\u00f6re Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f fiyatlamas\u0131 %50,2\u2019den %58,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n
Odak \u015fimdi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; Reuters anketi, mevduat faizini %2,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yacak \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Nordea stratejistleri, kilit ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl sonras\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmesi oldu\u011funu belirtti. Teknik tarafta EUR\/USD, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, RSI (14) 55,3 seviyesinde; 1,1710 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7, 1,1612, 1,1565 ve 1,1515 ise destek olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
EUR\/USD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verisine ra\u011fmen 1,1600 \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu hafta artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n A\u011fustos\u2019ta 162 bin istihdam eklemesi\u201456 binlik tahmini belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015farak\u2014dolar\u0131n temel tarafta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde desteklenmesini sa\u011fl\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle ABD piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Bayram\u0131 tatilinden sonra yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli dalgalanmalardan faydalanmaya odaklan\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ECB\u2019de olacak; %2,50\u2019ye i\u015faret eden 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde fiyatlan\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, merkez bankalar\u0131ndan \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyallerin geldi\u011fi haftalarda EUR\/USD haftal\u0131k ima edilen volatilite %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayabiliyor; bu da standart opsiyon stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Paritenin hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z beklenen fiyat k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun straddle veya strangle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
CME FedWatch arac\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50,2\u2019den %58,3\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesiyle, Fed\u2019in yakla\u015fan y\u00f6nlendirmesi orta vadeli trendi belirleyecek. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar tek seferlik bir ayarlama yerine daha uzun bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne i\u015faret ederse, ABD dolar\u0131 eurodaki mevcut destek seviyelerini rahatl\u0131kla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rabilir. Bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde \u015fahin bir Fed s\u00fcrprizine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla euro \u00fczerinde koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 alman\u0131n ak\u0131ll\u0131ca bir hedge y\u00f6ntemi oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite, 1,1565\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n ve 1,1612\u2019deki Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yap\u0131c\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m senaryolar\u0131nda Bollinger \u00fcst band\u0131na yak\u0131n 1,1710 civar\u0131ndaki opsiyon bariyerleri hedeflenebilir; risk kontrol\u00fc i\u00e7in 1,1515 destek seviyesine yak\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri belirlenebilir. \u0130\u015flemlerin bu kilit yap\u0131sal e\u015fikler etraf\u0131nda konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler y\u00f6netilirken getirinin maksimize edilmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n 1,1600 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunuyor. Fed Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %58,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. G\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe ECB\u2019de; 25 bp fiyatland\u0131. 1,1710 diren\u00e7, 1,1565-1,1515 destek. Oynakl\u0131k artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53695","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t