\u0130ran, Bloomberg\u2019in pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi\u011fine g\u00f6re, hafta sonu ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran petrol tankerlerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan izinsiz bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2h kullanan \u00fc\u00e7 petrol tankerini ve ABD ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir dizi gemiyi hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu ad\u0131m, K\u00f6rfez enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n kilit ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan suyolunun \u00e7evresindeki deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 risklerini yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00dcst d\u00fczey g\u00fcvenlik yetkilisi Mohsen Rezaee, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda yeni bir k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 b\u00f6lge olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Rezaee, b\u00f6lgenin ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n abluka hatt\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nin baz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131na uzanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve buraya giren her geminin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131m listesine eklenece\u011fini belirtti. Rezaee ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran ile Umman\u2019\u0131n, giri\u015f ve \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f noktalar\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kontrol\u00fcnde olacak \u015fekilde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7ecek yeni bir koridor i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde bir anla\u015fma imzalayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ifade etti.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 (bu da k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor) nedeniyle Brent ve WTI gibi petrol g\u00f6stergeleri \u00fczerinde anl\u0131k yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, Brent \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda sert bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya pozisyon almal\u0131. Tarihsel olarak, bu kritik darbo\u011fazda kesinti tehdidi dahi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %10 ila %15 oran\u0131nda yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Piyasa korkusundaki ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz art\u0131\u015ftan faydalanmak i\u00e7in CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX) \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde ima edilen volatilite h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda g\u00f6rece \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da bu opsiyonlar\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da daha geni\u015f bir t\u0131rmanmaya kar\u015f\u0131 uygun maliyetli bir hedge arac\u0131 haline getiriyor. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) gibi enerji ETF\u2019lerinde uzun straddle veya strangle stratejileri de bu ani jeopolitik belirsizli\u011fi i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik dengeli bir yol sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, Forward Freight Agreements (FFA) gibi navlun t\u00fcrevi s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinin b\u00f6lgesel ablukalara son derece duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011fu deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki \u00f6nceki tanker krizlerinde Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck kiralama oranlar\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmi\u015f, kimi zaman bir haftadan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede ikiye katlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Tanker hisselerinde veya navlun vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon almak, k\u00fcresel deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rotalar\u0131na \u015fu anda fiyatlanan y\u00fcksek risk primini yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu durumun deniz ablukalar\u0131yla h\u0131zla t\u0131rmanma ihtimali nedeniyle, k\u0131sa vadeli spek\u00fclatif i\u015flemlerde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) limitleri korunmal\u0131d\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca, enerji kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik gerilimlerde tarihsel olarak g\u00fcvenli liman niteli\u011fiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 takip etmelidir. Uzun petrol pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki hedge\u2019lerle dengelemek, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 piyasa pani\u011finin tetikleyebilece\u011fi kapsaml\u0131 varl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda portf\u00f6yleri koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de tansiyon t\u0131rman\u0131yor: \u0130ran, tankerleri ve ABD ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 gemileri hedefleyip yeni k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 b\u00f6lge duyurdu. Petrol arz riski Brent\/WTI\u2019y\u0131 yukar\u0131 itebilir; opsiyon\/OVX, XLE ve navlun hedge\u2019leri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50030,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53692","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t