Bank Negara Malaysia, Gecelik Politika Faizi\u2019ni (OPR) %2,75\u2019te sabit tuttu ve ileti\u015fimini daha \u015fahin bir y\u00f6ne kayd\u0131rarak, daha \u00f6nce politikan\u0131n \u201cuygun\u201d oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin ifadeyi metinden \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; bunun yerine duru\u015fu fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle \u201cuyumlu\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Temmuz\u2019daki fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc de kald\u0131ran banka, maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve yurt i\u00e7i talep ko\u015fullar\u0131 konusunda tetikte kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fcksek k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yurt i\u00e7i fiyatlara ve \u00fccretlere yans\u0131yabilece\u011fi endi\u015feleriyle birlikte geliyor. Bu s\u0131rada akaryak\u0131t s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131, enerji \u015fokunun etkisini yumu\u015fatmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik ivme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: 2\u00c7\u2019de GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,0 olurken, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda %5,7 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; merkez bankas\u0131 2026 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi art\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu, \u00f6nceki %4\u2013%5 band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n. Enflasyon kontrol alt\u0131nda seyretti: 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk yedi ay\u0131nda man\u015fet enflasyon ortalama %1,8, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,0 oldu; 2026 tahminleri man\u015fette %1,5\u2013%2,5, \u00e7ekirdekte %1,8\u2013%2,3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda. USD\/MYR %0,1 gerileyerek 4,0420\u2019ye indi; parite bu y\u0131l 3,88\u20134,16 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyretti ve 4,00\u20134,07 band\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funa y\u00f6nelmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Malezya Ringgiti i\u00e7in pozisyon almak ad\u0131na net bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. OPR %2,75\u2019te sabit tutulurken, resmi politika metninden \u201cuygun\u201d (\u201cappropriate\u201d) kelimesinin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131; 2026\u2019n\u0131n sonu veya 2027\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, Malezya\u2019n\u0131n 2\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %6,0 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretmesi ve b\u00f6lgesel emsallerinin \u00e7o\u011funu geride b\u0131rakan ihracat performans\u0131yla da destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, 4,00 destek seviyesini hedefleyen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip USD\/MYR sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite halihaz\u0131rda 4,04 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve Ringgit\u2019e y\u00f6nelik ticari talebin artmas\u0131yla birlikte, tahmin edilen 4,00\u20134,07 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt band\u0131n\u0131 test etmesini bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n teknoloji odakl\u0131 ihracat patlamalar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde piyasay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya haz\u0131rlamas\u0131, Ringgit\u2019te kal\u0131c\u0131 bir de\u011ferlenme ivmesiyle sonu\u00e7lan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Beklenen politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Malezya faiz swap\u2019lar\u0131nda (IRS) \u201cpayer\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131na girilmesini de \u00f6neriyoruz. Mevcut k\u0131sa vadeli swap oranlar\u0131, hen\u00fcz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tam olarak fiyatlam\u0131yor; bu da piyasa geneline yay\u0131lacak yeniden fiyatlama \u00f6ncesinde cazip bir giri\u015f penceresi sunuyor. Yurt i\u00e7i enflasyon ortalama %1,8 ile \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyrederken k\u00fcresel emtia riskleri art\u0131yor; bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede yerel getiri e\u011frisinin yak\u0131n vadede yukar\u0131 kaymas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz \u015fahin mesaj: Bank Negara OPR\u2019yi %2,75\u2019te tuttu ama \u201cuygun\u201d ifadesini \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p enflasyon risklerine vurgu yapt\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve emtia bask\u0131lar\u0131yla Ringgit g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir; USD\/MYR put ve IRS payer \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53686","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t