\u00c7in\u2019de \u00f6zel hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc faaliyeti a\u011fustosta g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; RatingDog China Services PMI temmuzdaki 50,4\u2019ten 51,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek Bloomberg konsens\u00fcs\u00fc olan 50,6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130yile\u015fme, bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131 50,8\u2019den 52,1\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yarak bir \u00f6nceki ay g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini tersine \u00e7evirdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, resmi imalat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 PMI a\u011fustosta 49,0\u2019da de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek; in\u015faat\u0131 da i\u00e7eren, daha geni\u015f ve devlet ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek hizmetler taban\u0131nda momentumun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Hizmetler g\u00f6stergesindeki toparlanmaya ra\u011fmen, i\u00e7 talep g\u00f6stergeleri zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %0,6 artt\u0131; ankete dayal\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise %5,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu tablo, t\u00fcketimde toparlanman\u0131n d\u00fczensiz seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00dcFE h\u00e2l\u00e2 hedefin belirgin alt\u0131nda seyrederken \u00dcFE de geriliyor; bu da politika alan\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bununla birlikte, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc PMI verisi PBoC\u2019nin hemen ad\u0131m atmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131rken, y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivme kaybederse ZK kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131nda (RRR) indirimler ve hedefli kredi imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fletilmesi gibi se\u00e7enekleri masada tutuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in \u00f6zel hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde PMI\u2019\u0131n 51,4\u2019e toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131, PBoC\u2019nin faiz indirimine gitmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki k\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltan ge\u00e7ici bir dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, parasal gev\u015femedeki bu gecikmenin Yuan\u2019\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak istikrara kavu\u015fturmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli g\u00fc\u00e7lenme d\u00f6nemlerinden yararlanmak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli offshore Yuan (CNH) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak resmi imalat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 PMI\u2019\u0131n 49,0 ile daralma b\u00f6lgesinde kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, kurda uzun vadeli iyimserli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli duruyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u00e7 talep, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n zay\u0131f %0,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin %5,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesiyle k\u0131r\u0131lgan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, \u00c7in hisseleri \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi muhtemel. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunurken s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 potansiyeli de yakalamak i\u00e7in CSI 300 veya Hang Seng Endeksi \u00fczerinde \u201ccollar\u201d stratejileri kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Benzer \u015fekilde PMI\u2019lar\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlere ait tarihsel veriler, \u00c7in piyasalar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmalar yerine y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131kla bant i\u00e7inde (range-bound) i\u015flemlerin daha s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
PBoC\u2019nin faiz indirimlerini ertelemesinin, onshore faiz piyasas\u0131nda \u201creceiver swap\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in iyi bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; zira y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce 25-50 baz puanl\u0131k bir Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131 (RRR) indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine ili\u015fkin veriler, merkez bankas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek \u00fczere y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011finde devlet tahvili getirilerinin belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, beklenen bu politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nden fiyatlamak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli \u00c7in devlet tahvili al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, zay\u0131f resmi PMI ve bask\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f in\u015faat faaliyeti, a\u011f\u0131r sanayi talebinin zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve bu durum k\u00fcresel emtialar\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Yak\u0131n vadede fiziksel talepteki bu yumu\u015fakl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in bak\u0131r ve ham petrolde yak\u0131n vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu defansif pozisyonlanma; \u00f6zel hizmetlerin toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak a\u011f\u0131r sanayi ile gayrimenkul piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n derin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00c7in\u2019in daha geni\u015f ekonomik ger\u00e7ekli\u011fiyle uyumludur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz PMI art\u0131\u015f\u0131: \u00c7in\u2019de \u00f6zel hizmetler 51,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, bile\u015fik PMI 52,1\u2019e toparland\u0131. Ancak resmi hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131 49\u2019da kald\u0131; talep zay\u0131f. PBoC k\u0131sa vadede frene basabilir, y\u0131l sonu RRR indirimi masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50161,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t