Sterlin cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,09 geriledi; daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verilerinin faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden canland\u0131rmas\u0131yla GBP\/USD 1,3512\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131na yak\u0131n seyretti. A\u011fustos Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam 162 bin artarak 56 binlik beklentinin ve temmuzdaki 21 binin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 %4,1\u2019de sabit kald\u0131. Para piyasalar\u0131, eyl\u00fclde Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc %54\u2019ten %61\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; ABD Dolar Endeksi de %0,18 art\u0131\u015fla 99,17\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Gelecek hafta ABD takviminde \u00dcFE, T\u00dcFE, i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131, Ayl\u0131k B\u00fct\u00e7e A\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve Michigan \u00dcniversitesi Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta da faiz fiyatlamalar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131rken, swap piyasalar\u0131 ekonomistlerin eyl\u00fclde de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklememesine kar\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde iki \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; yurti\u00e7inde beklenen veriler aras\u0131nda temmuz Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ve GSYH bulunuyor. Grafiklerde GBP\/USD 1,3521 civar\u0131nda; 1,3476\u20131,3375 band\u0131ndaki, daha \u00f6nce trend \u00e7izgisi direnci olup deste\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen seviye taraf\u0131ndan destekleniyor. \u0130lave seviyeler 1,3425 ve 1,3375 olarak izleniyor. Diren\u00e7, 1,3455 civar\u0131ndaki basit hareketli ortalama k\u00fcmelenmesi ve ard\u0131ndan 1,3657\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, 14 periyot RSI 50\u2019ye yak\u0131n seyrediyor.<\/p>\n\n
162 binlik, beklenti \u00fczeri ABD istihdam verisinin eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rlanmalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa art\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na %61 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7erken, ABD Dolar Endeksi 100\u2019deki kritik psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fe do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 momentum topluyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir sterlin geri \u00e7ekilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli ABD dolar\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak bu de\u011fi\u015fimden faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Grafiklerde GBP\/USD 1,3512 civar\u0131nda seyrederken yak\u0131n vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; bu da 1,3375\u2019teki kritik deste\u011fe do\u011fru bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in 1,3500\u20131,3350 kullan\u0131m fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde ay\u0131 put spreadleri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, \u00f6zellikle sterlinin ima edilen volatilitesinin istikrarl\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde tarihsel olarak m\u00fctevaz\u0131 %8 ortalama sergilemesi ve opsiyon primlerini g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u015fu anda olduk\u00e7a maliyet-etkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Gelecek haftaki kritik T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE enflasyon raporlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde faiz t\u00fcrevlerine de odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Teminatl\u0131 Gecelik Finansman Oran\u0131 (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flem opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden daha y\u00fcksek getiriler (faizler) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fundan faydalanmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Cleveland Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Beth Hammack\u2019in yak\u0131n zamanda politikan\u0131n yeterince k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerinden eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na oynanmas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta BoE, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131yla da kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; bu nedenle sterlinde ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz. Bu iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan T\u00dcFE ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri \u00f6ncesinde GBP\/USD\u2019de uzun strangle opsiyon stratejisi uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu kurgu, Fed veya BoE\u2019nin daha agresif bir patika izlemesinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak, kurda her iki y\u00f6nde ya\u015fanabilecek sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan k\u00e2r etmemizi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131yla Fed art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimali %61\u2019e \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca bask\u0131land\u0131; DXY 99,17\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. GBP\/USD 1,35\u2019te; 1,3375 kritik destek. Opsiyonda put spread\/strangle ve SOFR ile volatilite-faiz f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49969,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t