{"id":53673,"date":"2026-09-05T04:27:01","date_gmt":"2026-09-05T04:27:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/wallerin-aciklamalarinin-etkisi-azalirken-abd-istihdam-verileri-fedin-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-yeniden-canlandirdi-altin-sert-dalgalandi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-05T04:27:01","modified_gmt":"2026-09-05T04:27:01","slug":"wallerin-aciklamalarinin-etkisi-azalirken-abd-istihdam-verileri-fedin-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-yeniden-canlandirdi-altin-sert-dalgalandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/wallerin-aciklamalarinin-etkisi-azalirken-abd-istihdam-verileri-fedin-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-yeniden-canlandirdi-altin-sert-dalgalandi\/","title":{"rendered":"Waller\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi azal\u0131rken ABD istihdam verileri Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini yeniden canland\u0131rd\u0131; alt\u0131n sert dalgaland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n, Fed\u2019e ili\u015fkin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d yorumun, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verileriyle h\u0131zla g\u00f6lgede kalmas\u0131 \u00fczerine sert dalgaland\u0131. Vali Waller\u2019\u0131n, a\u011fustos enflasyonu iyile\u015firse eyl\u00fclde faizi sabit tutmaya daha yatk\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesiyle alt\u0131n per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc 4.539,90 dolar seviyesinde kapatt\u0131; bu a\u00e7\u0131klama art\u0131\u015f ihtimaline ili\u015fkin z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 %63\u2019ten %50\u2019ye \u00e7ekti. Tepki piyasalara yay\u0131ld\u0131: iki y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,32\u2019ye gerilerken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,76\u2019da kapand\u0131; Dow 624 puan y\u00fckseldi ve S&P 500 %1,1 artarken Nasdaq %1,4 prim yapt\u0131. Alt\u0131n kapan\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru %2,8 y\u00fckselse de hareketin \u00f6mr\u00fc k\u0131sa oldu.<\/p>\n

A\u011fustos tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 55 binlik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 162 bin geldi; \u00f6nceki iki ay toplam\u0131 55 bin yukar\u0131 revize edilirken temmuz verisi de eksi b\u00f6lgeden art\u0131 21 bine \u00e7evrildi. \u0130\u015fsizlik %4,1\u2019de kal\u0131rken \u00fccretler %0,3 artt\u0131; bu tablo k\u0131sa vadeli faizleri yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Dolar endeksi yakla\u015f\u0131k 98,9\u2019dan 99,3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine d\u00f6nerken alt\u0131n 4.427 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f daha h\u0131zl\u0131 geriledi. Madenciler taraf\u0131nda GDXJ per\u015fembeyi yakla\u015f\u0131k 132,3 dolarda %3,3 art\u0131da kapatsa da ertesi g\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,4 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti. Petrol g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131; Brent 95 dolar civar\u0131nda ve haftal\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 yukar\u0131da seyrederken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ge\u00e7i\u015fleri sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n

Fed Beklentileri De\u011fi\u015firken De\u011ferli Metallerde G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n

Fed\u2019in g\u00fcvercinle\u015fti\u011fi anlat\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcrken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda de\u011ferli metallerde daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmeye haz\u0131rlanmak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 162 binlik b\u00fcy\u00fck istihdam s\u00fcrprizinin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.539,90 dolardan 4.427 dolara sert d\u00fc\u015fmesi, \u201cen az diren\u00e7\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn art\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesi veya sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almas\u0131; teknik omuz-ba\u015f-omuz hedefi olan 4.100 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi hedeflemesi de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, yeniden g\u00fcvenilir bir \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge gibi davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: yukar\u0131 hareketin k\u0131sa b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterirken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fte \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Tarihsel olarak g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn alt\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek betas\u0131, ani geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn t\u00fcm metaller kompleksinde al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fckendi\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortamda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte k\u0131sa pozisyon veya ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejileri, alt\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 getiri sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n

Madencilik hisseleri de \u00f6nemli uyar\u0131 sinyalleri veriyor; GDXJ, %3,3\u2019l\u00fck rallisini tek seansta tamamen geri verdi. Kilit diren\u00e7 seviyelerinden gelen bu h\u0131zl\u0131 reddedi\u015f, martta g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz ve h\u0131zla daha derin sat\u0131\u015flara evrilen sert tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerini and\u0131r\u0131yor. Madencilerde uzun pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131; bunun yerine ge\u00e7ici rallilerin k\u0131sa pozisyon kurmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Dolar, Y\u00fckselen Faizler ve Bir Sonraki T\u00dcFE Testi<\/h3>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 98,9 civar\u0131ndaki %61,8 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek bulup 99,3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine tepki vermesi, emtialar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a olumsuz bir geli\u015fme. Tarihsel olarak diren\u00e7li bir dolar ile y\u00fckselen k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine faizlerinin birle\u015fimi, alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fler i\u00e7in a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 zor bir bariyer olu\u015fturuyor. Eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k\u00e7a dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryomuz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir sonraki kritik kontrol noktas\u0131, gelecek cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE verisi. Verinin, Brent petrol\u00fcn 95 dolara kadar son d\u00f6nemdeki %7\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tmas\u0131 muhtemel. Enflasyon verisi y\u00fcksek gelirse, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirecek ve de\u011ferli metallerde bir sonraki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyecektir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu veri \u00f6ncesinde koruyucu zarar-kes seviyelerini yak\u0131n tutmal\u0131, ancak pozisyonlanmada k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 korumal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: Fed\u2019in g\u00fcvercin mesaj\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdamla da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131. Alt\u0131n 4.539\u2019dan 4.427\u2019ye indi, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60+ oldu. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, madencilerde sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131, 4.100 hedefi masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t