Cleveland Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Beth Hammack, mevcut para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 fazla y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini ve ko\u015fullar\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikay\u0131 gerektirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. LinkedIn\u2019de yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 makalede Hammack, yerel temaslar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Hammack, enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu, buna kar\u015f\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fini ve kendi maksimum istihdam tahminine yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu ifade etti. Hem somut verilerin hem de sahadan gelen anlat\u0131lar\u0131n ayn\u0131 y\u00f6ne i\u015faret etti\u011fini vurgulayan Hammack, enflasyon Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fczerinde ne kadar uzun s\u00fcre kal\u0131rsa, yeniden hedefe d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmenin o kadar zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n\n
Fed politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in yeterince s\u0131k\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sinyalini verirken stratejilerimizi h\u0131zla uyarlamam\u0131z gerekiyor. Enflasyon y\u00fczde 3 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde inatla kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e piyasada faiz indirimi beklentisi h\u0131zla ortadan kalk\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n \u015fahin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe derhal haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; zira k\u0131sa vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali yeniden masada.<\/p>\n\n
Son enflasyon raporlar\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (T\u00dcFE) yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,2 seviyesinde inatla seyretti\u011fini ve fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde yerle\u015fik kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k CME FedWatch verileri, bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n son g\u00fcnlerde y\u00fczde 5\u2019in alt\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 35\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Bu ani de\u011fi\u015fim, \u00f6zellikle k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde y\u00fckselen getiriler riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) ihtiyac\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Portf\u00f6ylerimizi korumak i\u00e7in, faiz beklentileri y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak \u015fekilde Teminatl\u0131 Gecelik Finansman Oran\u0131 (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. K\u0131sa vadeli tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almak da getiriler \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131dan faydalanmak i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir hamle. Tarihsel olarak Fed beklenmedik faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6neldi\u011finde k\u0131sa vadeli getiriler uzun vadeli getirilerden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselir; bu da swap piyasalar\u0131nda \u201cbear flattener\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa para politikas\u0131n\u0131n patikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlarken, faiz opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sert bi\u00e7imde artmas\u0131n\u0131 da bekliyoruz. Faiz tavan\u0131 (cap) al\u0131m\u0131 veya volatilite straddle\u2019lar\u0131, bu ani ve agresif piyasa hareketlerinden faydalanmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kald\u0131ra\u00e7 seviyesini temkinli tutmak, yakla\u015fan Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 atlatmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Faizler yeniden mi y\u00fckselecek? Cleveland Fed\u2019den Hammack, politikan\u0131n yeterince k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, enflasyonun %3+ kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyip faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali verdi; piyasa, \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle hedge\/opsiyon stratejilerine y\u00f6neliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t