Alt\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi; XAU\/USD, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinin ard\u0131ndan %2\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydettikten sonra g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,80 ekside tamamlad\u0131. Dolar\u0131n destekli kalmas\u0131 ve gelecek haftaki enflasyon verilerinin yukar\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 halinde Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle faiz fiyatlamalar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u00f6ne kaymas\u0131 sonucu metal 4.437 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. A\u011fustos istihdam\u0131 56 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 162 bin artarken, Temmuz verisi -23 binden 21 bine revize edildi; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,1\u2019de sabit kald\u0131. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki %54\u2019ten %61\u2019e y\u00fckseltecek \u015fekilde fiyatlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi 4,81% seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4,768%\u2019e gerilerken, ABD Dolar Endeksi %0,13 art\u0131\u015fla 99,13\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi gelecek haftaki \u00dcFE ve T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na; bunun yan\u0131nda i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131, ABD Ayl\u0131k B\u00fct\u00e7e Raporu ve Michigan \u00dcniversitesi Eyl\u00fcl T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni verisine \u00e7evrildi. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n 4.354 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ile 4.534 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA aras\u0131nda bantta hareket ediyor; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mda 4.400, ard\u0131ndan 4.282 g\u00fcndeme gelebilirken, diren\u00e7 4.450, 4.500 ve A\u011fustos zirvesi 4.697 seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Beklentileri a\u015fan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisi sonras\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.437 dolara \u00e7ekilmesiyle, gelecek haftaki enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesinde volatilitede s\u0131\u00e7ramaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. A\u011fustos tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n\u0131n 162 bine y\u00fckselmesi, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %61\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu belirsizlikten faydalanmak i\u00e7in, her iki y\u00f6nde sert bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla opsiyonlarda straddle veya strangle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n
Gelecek haftaki T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verileri beklenenden s\u0131cak gelirse, Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin tarafa kaymas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r ve bu durum alt\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunda, 4.400 seviyesini hedefleyen put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ek hedef ise 4.354 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama. Tarihsel olarak benzer makro bask\u0131lar\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin 2023 sonlar\u0131nda 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisinin %5\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131\u2014k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131nda %5 veya \u00fczeri sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetiklemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, enflasyon verilerinin dezenflasyonun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etmesi halinde Fed ara verebilir ve bu durum h\u0131zl\u0131 bir short kapama rallisini tetikleyebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 4.450 direncini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz; bu seviyenin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, 4.534 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019y\u0131 hedefleyen bir call opsiyon stratejisine alan a\u00e7abilir. Bu seviyenin de \u00fczerine ge\u00e7ilmesi, \u00f6zellikle ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin mevcut 99,13 d\u00fczeyinden geri \u00e7ekilmesi durumunda, A\u011fustos zirvesi 4.697\u2019nin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yeniden test edilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, yak\u0131n zamanda %4,81\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra %4,768\u2019de dengelenen 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. Daha y\u00fcksek getiriler, getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n alternatif maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131r; alt\u0131n tarihsel olarak y\u00fckselen reel getirilerle yakla\u015f\u0131k -0,40 d\u00fczeyinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir negatif korelasyon sergiler. Vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 4.450 civar\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerde mikro alt\u0131n kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrken, bu diren\u00e7 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 bir zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz NFP alt\u0131n\u0131 sarst\u0131! XAU\/USD 4.437 dolara gerilerken dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %61\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. G\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE\u2019de; straddle\/strangle, 4.400 put veya 4.450 \u00fczeri call.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t