Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi 53.400\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda seyrederken, 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan A\u011fustos tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n 56 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 162 bin artmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 325 puan, ya da %0,6 geriledi ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ima edilen seviyesi %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Temmuz istihdam\u0131 23 bin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften 21 bin art\u0131\u015fa revize edilirken, Haziran verisi de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,1\u2019de kal\u0131rken i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 %61,4\u2019ten %61,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. U6 i\u015fsizlik %7,9\u2019dan %7,7\u2019ye geriledi, ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7lar ayl\u0131k %0,3 artt\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f %3,0 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 %3,1 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi yakla\u015f\u0131k sekiz baz puan art\u0131\u015fla %4,40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak Ocak 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; vadeli i\u015flemler 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %60,4, faizi sabit tutma ihtimalini %39,6 olarak fiyatlarken, Ekim i\u00e7in en az bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %87\u2019ye, Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in iki art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise %40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Daha sonra bir ba\u015fkanl\u0131k payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, 90\u2019dan fazla a\u00e7\u0131k veren \u00fclkeyle ticareti durdurma tehdidinde bulundu; ABD\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,2 trilyon dolar olurken \u00c7in 200 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi. Endeksteki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f 53.500 civar\u0131ndan 15:00 GMT itibar\u0131yla 53.300\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131na kadar geni\u015fledi. Gelecek hafta enflasyon verileri takip edilecek: 10 Eyl\u00fcl 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00dcFE\u2019nin, Temmuz\u2019daki yatay seyrin ard\u0131ndan man\u015fette ayl\u0131k %0,3; \u00e7ekirdekte %0,2\u2019den %0,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi ve y\u0131ll\u0131kta s\u0131ras\u0131yla %4,7 ve %4,2 gelmesi bekleniyor. 11 Eyl\u00fcl 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE\u2019nin man\u015fette ayl\u0131k %0,1\u2019den %0,4\u2019e ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,5 olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Motorin galonu rekor 5,85 dolara \u00e7\u0131karak ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 y\u00fckselirken Brent 95,00 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Teknik seviyelerde diren\u00e7 53.500\u2019de; ard\u0131ndan 53.600\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczeri, 53.700\u2019\u00fcn biraz \u00fczeri, 53.800 band\u0131, 54.000 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5 daha yukar\u0131da, 54.750\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131ndaki rekor seviye izleniyor. Destekler 53.250 civar\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 53.000, 52.800 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA ve 50.000\u2019in hemen \u00fczerindeki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA. Stoch RSI g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte 38\u2019e, be\u015f dakikal\u0131k grafikte yakla\u015f\u0131k 49\u2019a yak\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
162 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc A\u011fustos istihdam raporunun beklentileri belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015farak Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 nedeniyle t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %4,40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde hisse senetlerinde k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 potansiyel ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r. \u015eu anda 53.400 civar\u0131nda zorlanan Dow Jones\u2019ta daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir para politikas\u0131 ortam\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli (k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli) put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. <\/p>\n\n
Ba\u015fkan\u0131n, ABD ile 200 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunan \u00c7in gibi a\u00e7\u0131k veren \u00fclkelerle ticareti durdurma tehdidi, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7ok uluslu \u015firketler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131n vadeli bir risk olu\u015fturuyor. Asya\u2019daki \u00fcretime y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Apple ve Nike gibi endeks a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek hisselerde koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131 veya ay\u0131 put spread stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Tarihsel veriler, ani tedarik zinciri tehditlerinin fiyat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde tipik olarak k\u0131sa vadede %2 ila %3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri tetikledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Brent petrol 95 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken motorin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n galon ba\u015f\u0131na 5,85 dolar gibi \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir seviyeye y\u00fckselmesi, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun Fed\u2019i agresif tutmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. 10 Eyl\u00fcl \u00dcFE ve 11 Eyl\u00fcl T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesinde ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi beklenebilir; bu da opsiyon straddle stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. T\u00fcketici enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 tahminini a\u015farsa, 52.800 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Dow\u2019un kritik 53.500 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem e\u011filimimizi koruyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, k\u0131sa pozisyonlarda k\u00e2r realizasyonu i\u00e7in 53.250 ve 53.000 destek b\u00f6lgelerini hedefleyebilir; kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 kilitlemek ad\u0131na iz s\u00fcren zarar-kes (trailing stop) kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n yeniden 53.500 \u00fczerine d\u00f6nmesi, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 n\u00f6trlememiz ve 53.800\u2019e do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya (squeeze) haz\u0131rlanmam\u0131z i\u00e7in sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz 162 binlik tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam Dow\u2019u 325 puan bask\u0131lad\u0131; Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %60\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,40 \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ticaret tehdidi, petrol 95$, \u00dcFE-T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi volatilite art\u0131yor; 53.500 alt\u0131nda put\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t