EUR\/USD, NFP sonras\u0131 sert dalgalanmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n erken kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 koruyamamas\u0131yla toparland\u0131. Parite 1,1585\u2019e kadar geriledikten sonra yeniden 1,1620 civar\u0131na t\u0131rman\u0131rken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,36\u2019y\u0131 test ettikten sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 99,10\u2019a gev\u015fedi. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n, 1,1634\u2019teki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) ile s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131rken, fiyat\u0131n dar bir konsolidasyon i\u00e7inde 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ile 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA aras\u0131nda dalgalanmaya devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Daha geni\u015f trend, temmuz sonlar\u0131nda 1,1400 alt\u0131ndan 21 A\u011fustos\u2019ta 1,1711\u2019e uzanan hareketin ard\u0131ndan \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve son fiyatlamalar 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA \u00fczerinde olas\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek bir dip olu\u015fumuna i\u015faret ediyor. RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinden so\u011fumu\u015f olsa da 56 civar\u0131nda, n\u00f6tr 50 \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor; MACD ise s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n hafif alt\u0131nda seyrederken k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 histogram \u00e7ubuklar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. 1,1634 \u00fczerinde bir k\u0131r\u0131lma 1,1700\u2019\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan 1,1800\u2019\u00fc g\u00fcndeme getirebilir; destekler 1,1564 ve 1,1508\u2019de, daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ise 1,1400 seviyesinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
4 Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019da, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n beklentileri a\u015fan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde istihdam yaratmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan EUR\/USD\u2019de sert hareketlerin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, y\u00fcksek volatiliteye i\u015faret eden bir g\u00fcn ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisine ra\u011fmen ABD dolar endeksi 99,36 \u00fczerindeki tutunmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte zorlan\u0131yor; bu da pariteyi yeniden 1,1620 civar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, piyasan\u0131n bu seviyelerden ek dolar al\u0131m\u0131na istekli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve euronun sa\u011flam bir dip olu\u015fturma f\u0131rsat\u0131 buldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Halihaz\u0131rda kur, 1,1564\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama ile 1,1634\u2019teki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, bu dar 70 piplik band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na net bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar agresif y\u00f6nl\u00fc vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak EUR\/USD\u2019nin bu iki kritik hareketli ortalama aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, iki ila \u00fc\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketlerine zemin haz\u0131rlayabiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Opsiyon kullananlar i\u00e7in, spot fiyat ge\u00e7ici olarak bu bantta kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece prim toplamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli \u201ciron condor\u201d sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Z\u0131mni volatilite, ABD istihdam verisi sonras\u0131nda genellikle s\u0131\u00e7rar ve ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde geriler; bu da opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in uygun bir pencere yarat\u0131r. Ancak ani bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in 1,1634\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerine s\u0131k\u0131 al\u0131m-stop, 1,1564\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na ise sat\u0131\u015f-stop emirleri koymak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n
Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 56 seviyesinde ve n\u00f6tr e\u015fik \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131yla temkinli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunu destekliyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde de son d\u00f6nemdeki %2,2 civar\u0131nda yap\u0131\u015fkan kal\u0131rsa, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ilave faiz indirimlerini erteleyebilir ve bu da euroyu destekler. Bu senaryoda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in 1,1700 ve 1,1800 hedefli zararda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 cazip hale gelir.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan, ABD ekonomisinin beklenmedik \u015fekilde diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131 halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir. 1,1564\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkma, 1,1508\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamay\u0131 ve potansiyel olarak psikolojik 1,1400 taban\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yakla\u015fan konu\u015fmalarda Fed yetkililerinden gelebilecek olas\u0131 \u015fahin bir ton de\u011fi\u015fimine kar\u015f\u0131 spot pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NFP \u015fokunun ard\u0131ndan EUR\/USD toparlan\u0131p 1,1620\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; DXY 99,36\u2019dan 99,10\u2019a indi. Parite 100-200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 1,1634 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,1700-1,1800; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 1,1564-1,1508-1,1400 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t