Son ABD istihdam raporu, i\u015fe al\u0131mlarda keskin bir h\u0131zlanmaya i\u015faret ederek i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fumad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve tek ba\u015f\u0131na daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 engelleyecek pek az unsur sundu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Vadeli fiyatlamalar buna paralel kayd\u0131; piyasalar Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda hamle olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Tepki d\u00f6vizlere de yans\u0131d\u0131; EUR\/USD, veri sonras\u0131 yeniden 1,16\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n
Jackson Hole\u2019da Kevin Warsh\u2019tan gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, Hazine tahvili getirileri y\u00fcksek seyrini koruyor ve enflasyon beklentilerinin \u201ciyi \u00e7\u0131palanm\u0131\u015f\u201d oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor. Dikkat enflasyon verilerine \u00e7evriliyor; gelecek cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE verisi eyl\u00fcl karar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha belirleyici g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: y\u00fcksek bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, zay\u0131f bir okuma FOMC\u2019nin pas ge\u00e7mesini destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn beklentileri a\u015fan ABD istihdam raporu, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek tempoda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor ve bizi daha agresif bir Fed olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmaya zorluyor. A\u011fustos tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n\u0131n beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Piyasa FOMC politika patikas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlarken, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 hedge edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n son Jackson Hole sempozyumunda \u015fahin tonunun eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini art\u0131rmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, yorumlar\u0131na a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepki vermemek gerekir. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi yeniden %4,3\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131; bu seviye tek ba\u015f\u0131na finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma i\u015finin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 zaten \u00fcstleniyor. \u015eimdilik, merkez bankas\u0131ndan daha net sinyaller gelene kadar uzun vadeli tahvil pozisyonlar\u0131nda mevcut duru\u015fu korumay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri art\u0131k Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 %60 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlarken, ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi ve EUR\/USD paritesini 1,16 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na itti. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, bu momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli dolar al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmelerini ve kilit destek seviyelerini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, istihdam verilerinin beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde dolar\u0131n politika kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde s\u0131kl\u0131kla ralli yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in bir sonraki hamlesinde nihai belirleyici, gelecek cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) raporu olacak; bu veri ya faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 teyit edecek ya da Fed\u2019in pas ge\u00e7mesine alan a\u00e7acak. Gelecek hafta beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelecek bir enflasyon verisi eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kilitleyebilir; daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir okuma ise dolarda sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir. T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda \u201cgaranti\u201d oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in i\u015flem boyutlar\u0131n\u0131n makul tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 ve S&P 500 \u00fczerinde straddle stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD istihdam\u0131 patlad\u0131, Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken EUR\/USD 1,16 alt\u0131na indi. G\u00f6zler cuma T\u00dcFE\u2019de: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 kilitler, zay\u0131f okuma pas ge\u00e7irmeyi destekler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t