EUR\/GBP cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc gerileyerek 0,8600 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yan ve 1 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131ran d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Parite, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nden gelen zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici verilerinin ard\u0131ndan 0,8590 civar\u0131nda, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,10 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Euro B\u00f6lgesi Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 temmuzda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,6 gerileyerek %0,3 art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin aksine hareket etti ve hazirandaki %0,2\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015fi tersine \u00e7evirdi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda sat\u0131\u015flar %0,6 artarak %1,1\u2019lik tahminin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki %1,4 seviyesinden geriledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoE) gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda enflasyonun hedefe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131na ve y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lulu\u011fun tahvil piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin vurgular \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, BoE Ba\u015fekonomisti Banka Faizi\u2019nin %4 olmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih etti\u011fini yineledi. Faiz beklentileri ise ayr\u0131\u015fan patikalara i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) 9-10 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yapmas\u0131 geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde beklenirken, BoE\u2019nin 17 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve 28 Ekim b\u00fct\u00e7esi g\u00fcndemde kal\u0131rken, \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 0,87 EUR\/GBP seviyesi telaffuz edildi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/GBP paritesi 0,8590 seviyeleri etraf\u0131nda seyrederken EUR\/GBP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taktik f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Euro, Euro B\u00f6lgesi perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki ayl\u0131k %0,6\u2019l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f nedeniyle k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli t\u00f6kezlemi\u015f olsa da, ECB ile BoE aras\u0131ndaki temel politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Euro lehine olduk\u00e7a destekleyici olmaya devam ediyor. Gelecek hafta ba\u015flayacak merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki bu k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmeyi de\u011ferlendirmeyi hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin 9-10 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n, BoE\u2019nin ise 17 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesiyle faiz fark\u0131 Euro lehine kayacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in ekim vadeli bo\u011fa call spread yap\u0131lar\u0131 kurabilir. Bu strateji, \u00f6denen primi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken paritenin 0,8700 seviyesine do\u011fru kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanacak \u015fekilde konumlanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, \u0130ngiltere devlet borcunda y\u00fcksek yabanc\u0131 sahipli\u011fi Sterlin\u2019i mali \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u0131lar; t\u0131pk\u0131 2022 gilt piyasas\u0131 krizinde EUR\/GBP ima edilen volatilitenin %11\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu gibi. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u0130ngiltere gilt piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %25 ila %30\u2019unu elinde tutuyor; bu oran, G10\u2019daki \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclkenin ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. 28 Ekim\u2019deki \u0130ngiltere b\u00fct\u00e7esi \u00f6ncesinde olu\u015fabilecek tedirginlik, sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek Sterlin\u2019i zay\u0131flatmaya son derece yatk\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda EUR\/GBP \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,8 ile g\u00f6rece ucuz seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da uzun opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 maliyet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 0,8650 olan para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu sayede, hem kurun y\u00fckselmesinden hem de \u0130ngiltere\u2019deki mali takvim yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a volatilitede olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramadan getiri elde etme imk\u00e2n\u0131 do\u011far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Euro zay\u0131f verilerle EUR\/GBP\u2019yi 0,8590\u2019a \u00e7ekse de as\u0131l hik\u00e2ye politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131: ECB art\u0131\u015fa giderken BoE sabit kalabilir. Ucuz volatilitede 0,8650 call\/bo\u011fa spread; 0,87 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t