AUD\/USD, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131f seyrini korumas\u0131 sonucunda, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7203\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. MUFG, ABD faiz fiyatlamas\u0131nda bir kaymaya i\u015faret etti: Ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda %70\u2019e yak\u0131n olan bu ay Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, Fed y\u00f6netiminin temkinli mesajlar\u0131 sonras\u0131 art\u0131k 50:50\u2019ye geriledi. A\u011fustos ay\u0131 ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; ancak fiyatlamada odak enflasyon verilerine do\u011fru kaym\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n\n
Grafiklerde parite 0,7136\u2019daki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalarak k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini korudu; RSI 66 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, destek 0,7200 yak\u0131n\u0131nda, diren\u00e7 ise d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n 0,7280 b\u00f6lgesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, John Williams 6\/10 FXS Speechtracker puan\u0131 ald\u0131; bu seviye 5,9\/10\u2019luk tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n hafif \u00fczerinde. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 1,42 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 127,44\u2019e indi ve 100\u2019l\u00fck n\u00f6tr \u00e7izginin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Fed ileti\u015fimi, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n veriye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131yla birlikte %2 enflasyon hedefini \u00f6ncelik olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelemeye devam etti.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, faiz beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fim nedeniyle ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde olu\u015fan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 s\u00fcrerken Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019nda artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu ay Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %70\u2019ten %50\u2019ye yak\u0131n seviyelere gerilemesi, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n faiz getirisinden kaynaklanan avantaj\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, k\u0131sa vadede daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Avustralya Dolar\u0131 lehine t\u00fcrev stratejileri daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,7136\u2019daki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutundu\u011funu ve 66 seviyesindeki RSI\u2019\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 0,7280 civar\u0131ndaki d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini hedefleyerek al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 veya uzun vadeli vadeli i\u015flem (futures) pozisyonlar\u0131 kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 0,7200 destek seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri yerle\u015ftirilmesi uygun olacakt\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak RSI\u2019\u0131n 65\u2019in \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu benzer y\u00fckseli\u015f kurulumlar\u0131, izleyen iki haftada ortalama %1,5\u2019lik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin devam\u0131na i\u015faret etmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n
Gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisinin, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporuna k\u0131yasla piyasay\u0131 \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde hareketlendirece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fed yetkililerinden gelen son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, politika kararlar\u0131nda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ziyade enflasyon e\u011filimlerinin art\u0131k temel belirleyici oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda beklenen volatiliteyi yakalamak i\u00e7in straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin kurgulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcncel CFTC verileri, varl\u0131k y\u00f6neticilerinin ABD dolar\u0131nda net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu durum, \u015fahinle\u015fmenin ivme kaybetti\u011fi bu alg\u0131yla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bununla birlikte, FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nin 127,44 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 100\u2019l\u00fck n\u00f6tr e\u015fi\u011fin \u00fczerinde seyretmesi, genel politika duru\u015funun k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Enflasyonun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda beklenmedik \u015fekilde yeniden y\u00fckselmesi halinde riskleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in, USD cinsinden varl\u0131klarda k\u0131sa vadeli AUD\/USD swaplar\u0131yla hedge edilmesi yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed fiyatlamas\u0131 70\u2019ten 50:50\u2019ye kayd\u0131, Dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131: AUD\/USD 0,7203\u2019te. 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA \u00fcst\u00fc, RSI 66. Destek 0,7200; hedef 0,7280. Odak T\u00dcFE, volatilite artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50026,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t