NYMEX\u2019te WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 88,65 dolara gerileyerek 90 dolar seviyesinin yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta zorlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Hareket, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n \u201c\u00e7ok uzun\u201d s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesi ve ilave bir askeri harek\u00e2t ihtimalini a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n fiyatlamas\u0131yla geldi.<\/p>\n
Son kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 hamleler, haftalar s\u00fcren g\u00f6rece sakinli\u011fin ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en hafta sonu ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (CENTCOM), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na may\u0131n g\u00f6nderilmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fclen \u0130ran\u2019a ait roket rampalar\u0131n\u0131 vurmas\u0131 s\u00fcreci tetikledi. Deutsche Bank, bu t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel arz risklerine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri yeniden canland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bo\u011fazdan enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede normalle\u015fece\u011fine dair beklentileri zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Commerzbank, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir gerilimin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ili\u015fkin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kan\u0131t bulundu\u011funu vurgulayarak ko\u015fullar\u0131 \u201cson derece ak\u0131\u015fkan\u201d olarak nitelendirdi. TD Securities ise gayriresm\u00ee d\u00fczenlemelerin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek, ABD\u2019nin Umman rotas\u0131 \u00fczerinden gemi hareketlerini kolayla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7i\u015fi kontrol etmeye odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol\u00fcn (WTI) 90 dolarl\u0131k diren\u00e7 seviyesini a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 88,65 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD-\u0130ran asker\u00ee gerilimlerinin kritik H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, bu hayati koridorda jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme riski ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez dalgalanmalar sergiler.<\/p>\n
Riski somutla\u015ft\u0131rmak gerekirse, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kritik enerji ge\u00e7i\u015f darbo\u011faz\u0131 olup g\u00fcnl\u00fck 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol ta\u015f\u0131makta ve bu miktar k\u00fcresel s\u0131v\u0131 petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelmektedir. Burada ya\u015fanacak uzun s\u00fcreli bir kesinti WTI\u2019\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla 100 dolar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; bu da mevcut 90 dolarl\u0131k tavan\u0131n son derece k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu nedenle, ani yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalardan faydalan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, diplomatik \u00e7abalar nedeniyle 90 dolarl\u0131k direncin korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in giri\u015f maliyetini azaltmak ad\u0131na bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor; bu durum genellikle opsiyon primlerini \u015fi\u015firir ve tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk i\u00e7eren stratejileri daha avantajl\u0131 h\u00e2le getirir. G\u00fcnl\u00fck man\u015fetlerin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor; zira k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma dahi, agresif k\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131racak k\u0131sa kapama rallilerini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Fiziki varl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yan portf\u00f6y y\u00f6neticileri i\u00e7in, yakla\u015f\u0131k 85 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n ani bir gerilimin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir hedge oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Benzer gerilim d\u00f6nemlerine ili\u015fkin tarihsel veriler, tansiyonun aniden d\u00fc\u015fmesi h\u00e2linde petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde %5 ila %10 gerileyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Se\u00e7ici put korumas\u0131yla dengelenmi\u015f uzun call pozisyonu, bu son derece ak\u0131\u015fkan i\u015flem ortam\u0131nda daha g\u00fcvenli bir \u015fekilde hareket etmeyi sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol cephesinde kritik e\u015fik: WTI 88,65 dolara inerken 90 dolar\u0131 a\u015fam\u0131yor. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz arz riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; oynakl\u0131k artabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya call\/put opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49959,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t