Hindistan rupisi, Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) D\u00f6viz Tevdiat Hesab\u0131 (Foreign Currency Non-Resident – FCNR) program\u0131 \u00fczerinden gelen giri\u015flerin para birimini desteklemesi ve ABD faiz beklentilerinin yumu\u015famas\u0131yla Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek \u00f6nceki seanstaki iki ayl\u0131k zirve olan 94,29 seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. RBI, erken Haziran\u2019da devreye al\u0131nan FCNR(B) penceresi dahil d\u00f6viz mobilizasyon programlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden 136,38 milyar dolar toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayarak rezerv tamponlar\u0131n\u0131 ve m\u00fcdahale kapasitesini art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD taraf\u0131nda ise Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller, son verilerin dezenflasyon i\u015faretleri verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; bu a\u00e7\u0131klama dolar\u0131n gerilemesine yol a\u00e7arken Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik fiyatlamay\u0131 da yeniden \u015fekillendirdi.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlamalar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti; CME FedWatch arac\u0131, Waller\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u201c\u00fc\u00e7e bir\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131ktan, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini \u201cbire iki\u201d d\u00fczeyine \u00e7ekti. Piyasalar \u015fimdi, ADP\u2019nin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131 +38 bin (beklenti +47 bin; Temmuz +46 bin) ile Ocak\u2019tan bu yana en zay\u0131f seviyede g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan, 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak A\u011fustos tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisini bekliyor. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,1\u2019de sabit kalmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, Temmuz\u2019daki 23 bin i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tahminler 56 bine i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/INR 94,4925 seviyesinde, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama olan 95,2909\u2019un alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, RSI 28 civar\u0131nda ve 94,08 seviyesi odakta; Waller\u2019\u0131n FXS Speechtracker skoru 6,3 ortalamaya kar\u015f\u0131 6,1 olurken, FXS Fed Sentiment Index 2,06 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 125,38\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/INR paritesinde k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z; ancak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131 nedeniyle son derece taktiksel kalmak gerekiyor. Parite 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan 95,2909\u2019un alt\u0131nda seyrederken en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 hatt\u0131 94,08\u2019deki kritik destek seviyesine do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u015faret ediyor. Bununla birlikte G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 28 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli d\u00fczeltme tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini ve bu hareketlerde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n yeniden olu\u015fturulabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu trendi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerine ani volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131na a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 maruz kalmadan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma kat\u0131lmak amac\u0131yla \u201cbear put spread\u201d veya \u201cshort call\u201d stratejilerini kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. RBI\u2019nin, FX mobilizasyon programlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden toplanan 136,38 milyar dolarla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen y\u00fcksek m\u00fcdahale kapasitesi, USD\/INR\u2019deki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131n\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak RBI bu denli y\u00fcksek rezervlere sahip oldu\u011funda\u2014yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde 680 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki rekor seviyelere ula\u015fan rezervler\u2014rupideki volatiliteyi aktif bi\u00e7imde bask\u0131lar ve rupinin sert de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca yakla\u015fan ABD makro verileri, \u00f6zellikle tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam ve enflasyon verileri etraf\u0131nda volatilitenin artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Piyasa Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u201cbire iki\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlarken, 56 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinden herhangi bir sapma keskin fiyat hareketlerini tetikleyebilir. Bu belirsizlikten yararlanmak i\u00e7in, kritik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ima edilen volatilite geni\u015flemesinden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla USD\/INR opsiyonlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli \u201cstraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d i\u015flemleri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupide dikkat \u00e7eken g\u00fc\u00e7lenme: RBI\u2019nin FCNR \u00fczerinden toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 136,4 milyar $ rezervleri \u015fi\u015firdi, dolar Fed\u2019in yumu\u015fayan faiz sinyaliyle geriledi. USD\/INR 94,08 deste\u011fine inerken NFP verisi volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t