Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda 4.500 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerileyerek ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hafif\u00e7e y\u00fckselmesiyle iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131; ancak bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen haftal\u0131k zirveye yak\u0131n seyrini korudu. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi bulunuyor; Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda veri, Fed\u2019in politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri \u015fekillendirebilir. Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak enflasyon verilerinin s\u00fcrpriz yaratmamas\u0131 halinde Eyl\u00fcl FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmaya meyletti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu arka plan daha \u00f6nce ABD tahvil getirileri ile Dolar\u2019\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015f ve k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Petrol, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki yeniden alevlenen gerilim ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki tansiyon nedeniyle 24 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Kuvejt ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019ndeki ABD \u00fcslerini hedef almas\u0131 ve G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce varl\u0131k konu\u015fland\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ba\u015fl\u0131klar aras\u0131nda. Bu zeminde XAU\/USD, 14 May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 4.700 dolar civar\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan dengelenirken, haftay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa art\u0131da kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; ancak bunun i\u00e7in 4.500 dolar \u00fczerindeki tutunman\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde fiyat, 4 saatlik grafikte 200 periyotluk SMA ve %38,2 Fibonacci seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken; RSI 56 civar\u0131nda ve MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Diren\u00e7ler 4.540, 4.609 ve 4.698 dolar civar\u0131nda; destekler ise 4.442, 4.381, 4.322 ve 4.283,63 dolar seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve yak\u0131ndan izlenen ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi, alt\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki y\u00f6n hareketini b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla belirleyecek ana kataliz\u00f6r konumunda. Tarihsel olarak, istihdam\u0131n piyasa beklentisinden 50 binin \u00fczerinde sapmas\u0131, k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131nda anl\u0131k %1,5 ila %2 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fiyat hareketlerini tetikliyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, beklenen bu volatiliteyi erken y\u00f6n tercihi yapmadan de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in stop-loss seviyelerini ge\u00e7ici olarak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 veya straddle opsiyon stratejilerini kullanmalar\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130stihdam verisinin \u00f6tesinde, Orta Do\u011fu ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda artan gerilim, hem petrol hem de g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir jeopolitik risk priminin fiyatlanmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Tarihsel veriler, ana petrol ge\u00e7i\u015f noktalar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n enflasyon endi\u015feleriyle birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 %10 ila %15 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Opsiyon portf\u00f6ylerimizde, alt\u0131n\u0131 4.500 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine kolayl\u0131kla ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek ani jeopolitik s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda alt\u0131n, d\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece yap\u0131sal olarak y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor; kilit destek 4.442 dolarda sa\u011flam duruyor. Kritik 4.500 dolar psikolojik seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, 4.609 ve 4.698 dolar hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik daha uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in \u201cye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k\u201d niteli\u011finde olacakt\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisiyle Dolar\u2019\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 halinde, tarihsel olarak al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu 4.381 dolar destek b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda geri \u00e7ekilmelerin al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak izlenmesi \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NFP \u00f6ncesi alt\u0131n 4.500 alt\u0131na sark\u0131p toparlan\u0131yor; Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de pas ge\u00e7me e\u011filimi belirleyici. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol\u00fc desteklerken, teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 4.442 deste\u011fiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t