Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) yeniden devreye girebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6ylemler USDJPY\u2019yi sert \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, Dolar Endeksi de bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi \u00f6ncesinde geriledi. Euro\u2019nun 1,17\u2019ye do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fi belirtilirken, EURINR\u2019nin 110-110,50 band\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc; EURJPY\u2019nin 182 alt\u0131na indi\u011fi ve 180\u2019in test edilebilece\u011fi ifade edildi. Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n 0,73\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckselmesinin, sterlinin ise 1,3450\u2019yi test ettikten sonra toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi; USDCNY\u2019nin 6,71\/70\u2019e y\u00f6nlendirildi\u011fi; Hindistan rupisinin ise 94\u2019e do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7lenme alan\u0131 bulundu\u011fu ancak ard\u0131ndan tersine d\u00f6nebilece\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri daha y\u00fcksek ve yatay ancak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelle tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken, Almanya getirilerinin kilit diren\u00e7 civar\u0131nda tak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve devam\u0131n\u0131n gelmedi\u011fi belirtildi. Hindistan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k GoI getirisi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, ancak destek \u00fczerinde tutunuyor; ara d\u00f6nemde bir dip riskine ra\u011fmen k\u0131sa vadede pozitif e\u011filim \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Hisse senetlerinde Dow\u2019un 53.000 \u00fczerinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi; 54.000 a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa 54.500-55.000 band\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fi; DAX\u2019\u0131n 26.500\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi\u011fi; Nifty\u2019de 23.800 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 23.600 riskinin bulundu\u011fu ve Nikkei\u2019nin 62.000\u2019e do\u011fru kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. \u015eanghay endeksi 3.850-4.000 band\u0131na oturtuldu. Brent ve WTI i\u00e7in s\u0131ras\u0131yla 100$ ve 95$, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in 4.600$ \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece 4.700$-4.800$, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in 70$ \u00fczerinde 75$-80$, bak\u0131r i\u00e7in 6,50$-6,80$ ve do\u011fal gaz i\u00e7in 3,00$ \u00fczerinde 3,25$-3,50$ hedefleri i\u015faretlendi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir ba\u015fka muhtemel m\u00fcdahalesinin ard\u0131ndan yen \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik ABD istihdam verisi \u00f6ncesinde bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamak i\u00e7in USDJPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli (k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki 9,8 trilyon yenlik b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli kur savunmas\u0131na benzer maj\u00f6r d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri, carry-trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7arak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EURJPY\u2019yi kolayl\u0131kla 180\u2019in alt\u0131na \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131 piyasas\u0131nda, ABD dolar\u0131nda zay\u0131flamaya y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in net bir patika g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Euro\u2019da 1,17 hedefiyle ve Avustralya dolar\u0131nda 0,73 hedefiyle al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131; sterlinde ise 1,3450\u2019ye do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilme sonras\u0131 tepki al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in beklenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca, Hindistan rupisinde k\u0131sa vadede 94\u2019e do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7lenme beklentisine pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131p, ard\u0131ndan yap\u0131sal bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat kollanmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde ABD tahvil getirileri konusunda yap\u0131sal olarak y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc koruyor ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat toparlanmalar\u0131nda tahvil vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD getirilerindeki geri \u00e7ekilmelerin s\u0131\u011f ve k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131; zira genel makro arka plan daha y\u00fcksek faizleri desteklemeye devam ediyor. Bununla birlikte, Alman Bund getirileri mevcut kritik diren\u00e7 seviyesini net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131rmadan Avrupa bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f taraf\u0131nda bekle-g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse t\u00fcrevlerinde, Dow 53.000 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 ve 55.000\u2019e do\u011fru ilave bir hareketin hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Nikkei ve Nifty\u2019de temkinli hatta belirgin \u015fekilde negatif bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131; s\u0131ras\u0131yla 62.000 ve 23.600\u2019e olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunmay\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Endeks 26.500 seviyesine do\u011fru tepki denemesi yaparken DAX vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar da de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Emtia t\u00fcrevlerinde, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n deste\u011fiyle Brent\u2019in 100$\u2019a, WTI\u2019\u0131n 95$\u2019a y\u00f6nelmesi beklentisi kapsam\u0131nda petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz. De\u011ferli metallerde ise alt\u0131n 4.600$ \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flad\u0131ktan ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 70$ seviyesini net bi\u00e7imde a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra agresif yeni uzun pozisyonlara ge\u00e7ilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Son olarak, do\u011fal gazda 3,00$ \u00fczerinde teyitli bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar kenarda kal\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131; bu k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n 3,50$\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" BoJ m\u00fcdahalesi s\u00f6ylemiyle USDJPY sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam \u00f6ncesi dolar zay\u0131f. Opsiyonlarda USDJPY\/EURJPY put, EUR-AUD call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; tahvilde sat\u0131\u015f, petrolde-long, alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131m.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t