USD\/JPY, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli bir konsolidasyon i\u00e7inde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 155,75 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde fazla de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi. Parite, A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndaki sal\u0131n\u0131m dibine yak\u0131n kal\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Fed politikas\u0131na y\u00f6n verecek sinyal i\u00e7in ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisine odakland\u0131. Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller\u2019\u0131n enflasyonun so\u011fudu\u011funa dair i\u015faretler bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD tahvil getirileri geriledi; bu durum ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 bir haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine iterken parite \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 korudu.<\/p>\n
Yen, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) faiz beklentilerinin daha \u015fahin bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131 ve olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale \u015f\u00fcpheleriyle destek buldu. Piyasalar 17\u201318 Eyl\u00fcl BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen fiyatlarken, kurul \u00fcyesi Hajime Takata\u2019n\u0131n daha \u00e7evik bir yakla\u015f\u0131m \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Aral\u0131k\u2019ta bir takip ad\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde ise hafta i\u00e7inde 4 saatlik grafikte 200 periyotluk basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, 155,25\u2013155,20 band\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in kritik tetikleyici seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu b\u00f6lgenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, d\u00f6rt on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirveden gelen geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan 155,00 seviyesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n ve 160,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir hareket ise bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n bug\u00fcn, 4 Eyl\u00fcl 2026, kritik ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olmas\u0131 nedeniyle artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131ndan gelen son veriler, USD\/JPY\u2019de bir haftal\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilitenin %14\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin derinle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, mevcut yatay banttan gelebilecek sert k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle stratejileriyle bu fiyatlama bask\u0131s\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni, BoJ\u2019un para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerdeki de\u011fi\u015fimle belirgin bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Ekonomistler, \u00f6zellikle politika yap\u0131c\u0131lardan gelen son \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, yakla\u015fan Eyl\u00fcl BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 olarak hesapl\u0131yor. ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak USD\/JPY, 155,20 civar\u0131ndaki son sal\u0131n\u0131m dibi gibi kilit desteklerin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 algoritmik sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebiliyor. 2024 sonundaki benzer makro de\u011fi\u015fim d\u00f6nemlerinde, psikolojik e\u015fiklerin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde %3 ila %4\u2019l\u00fck h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri beraberinde getirmi\u015fti. Bu olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n ivmeyi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, trend d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put al\u0131p bunu trend d\u0131\u015f\u0131 call satarak finanse eden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk reversal pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" NFP \u00f6ncesi USD\/JPY 155,75\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; Fed sinyali ve d\u00fc\u015fen ABD getirileri dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019da \u015fahin fiyatlama ile yen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. 155,20 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa sat\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlanabilir; z\u0131mni vol %14+, straddle\/risk reversal \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t