{"id":53614,"date":"2026-09-04T02:26:16","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T02:26:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/wallerin-faizlere-ara-sinyali-vermesiyle-altin-4-400-dolarin-uzerine-sicradi-dolar-geriledi-jeopolitik-gerilim-tirmandi\/"},"modified":"2026-09-04T02:26:16","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T02:26:16","slug":"wallerin-faizlere-ara-sinyali-vermesiyle-altin-4-400-dolarin-uzerine-sicradi-dolar-geriledi-jeopolitik-gerilim-tirmandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/wallerin-faizlere-ara-sinyali-vermesiyle-altin-4-400-dolarin-uzerine-sicradi-dolar-geriledi-jeopolitik-gerilim-tirmandi\/","title":{"rendered":"Waller\u2019\u0131n faizlere ara sinyali vermesiyle alt\u0131n 4.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; dolar geriledi, jeopolitik gerilim t\u0131rmand\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller, enflasyonun so\u011fumaya devam etmesi halinde faizleri sabit tutmay\u0131 destekleyece\u011fini, ancak verilerin beklentiden daha s\u0131cak gelmesi durumunda bir art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalinin de masada kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. XAU\/USD 4.487 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilim ve Japon Yeni\u2019ni desteklemeye y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlara dair piyasa s\u00f6ylentileri e\u015fli\u011finde ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. ABD verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller verdi: 29 A\u011fustos\u2019ta sona eren haftaya ili\u015fkin haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 204 binden 206 bine y\u00fckselerek 205 binlik tahmini hafif a\u015ft\u0131; ISM Hizmet PMI ise 54,1\u2019den 55,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 54,3\u2019l\u00fck beklentiyi ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n

Maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; ISM \u00d6denen Fiyatlar endeksi 70,3\u2019ten 72,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek A\u011fustos 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 buna paralel g\u00fcncellendi: Prime Terminal\u2019e g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131 16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k ad\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 54, de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmamas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 46 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler Cleveland Fed\u2019den Beth Hammack\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisine \u00e7evrildi: A\u011fustos istihdam\u0131n\u0131n -23 binden 56 bine toparlanmas\u0131 beklenirken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 4,1 ile de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n 4.400 dolar\u0131 yeniden geri ald\u0131; diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.500 dolar ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.533 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, destekler 4.400 dolar, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.358 dolar, 4.300 dolar ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.232 dolar seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Kritik Veri \u00d6ncesi \u0130\u015flem Volatilitesi ve Opsiyon Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Fed \u00dcyesi Christopher Waller\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvercin tondaki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fclemesinin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda 4.487 dolara kadar dikkat \u00e7ekici bir s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu ralli, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler ve zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde desteklenerek metali kritik diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) raporu \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k bekliyoruz; t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n buna h\u0131zla haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda para piyasalar\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 54 ve \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 46 g\u00f6stererek olduk\u00e7a yak\u0131n bir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma i\u015faret ediyor. 16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bu belirsizlikten yararlanmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, y\u00f6n ne olursa olsun sert hareketlerden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen straddle veya strangle opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite, tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 Fed kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki g\u00fcnlerde genellikle y\u00fczde 15 ila y\u00fczde 20 artma e\u011filiminde.<\/p>\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, alt\u0131n 4.500 dolarl\u0131k psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fi kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015farsa bir sonraki net hedef 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) olan 4.533 dolar. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, olas\u0131 ivmeyi yakalamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 4.550 dolar civar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Di\u011fer yandan, beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisinin sert bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetiklemesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 4.400 dolar destek seviyesine yak\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 sermaye korumas\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Uzun Vadeli Fakt\u00f6rler ve Kurumsal Destek<\/h3>\n

Daha geni\u015f resimde, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar i\u00e7in uzun vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturmaya devam etti\u011fini de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmak gerekiyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verileri, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n son y\u0131llarda y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.030 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bunun tarihi y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini peki\u015ftirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu yap\u0131sal kurumsal destek, alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmelerin ana y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinde bozulma olarak de\u011fil, al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz ralli: Waller\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvercin mesaj\u0131 ve zay\u0131flayan dolar XAU\/USD\u2019yi 4.487 dolara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. NFP \u00f6ncesi volatilite art\u0131yor; Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 bp olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %54. Diren\u00e7 4.500-4.533, destek 4.400.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t